FFPC Dynasty Top 20 (After Week 13)

Here is the updated FFPC Top 20 through the last week of the regular season:


1. Dead Cracker Babies $750 #2 2245.65
2. Michigan Fanatics $500 #8 2241.35
3. Leg Humpers $500 #2 2215.00
4. Rude Awakening $1250 #2 2150.75
5. K9 DYNASTY $1250 #3 2131.15
6. Atom Bombs $750 #9 2121.15
7. CAVALIER KING CHARLES $750 #2 2113.95
8. CAVALIER KING CHARLES $750 #4 2098.20
9. Rude Awakening $750 #1 2082.40
10. Down and Out $1250 #4 2081.75

11. Big Pork Sammich $1250 #3 2070.55
12. Hawkeye Hellraisers $750 #3 2068.95
13. Coltsfan $750 #4 2060.15
14. ATOM BOMBS $1250 #2 2055.90
15. Bobcats $750 #7 2050.60
16. Yo Soy Fiesta $750 #10 2045.45
17. Gridiron Assassin Squad $750 #6 2035.50
18. Big Red $750 #4 2031.95
19. HGH $750 #6 2021.75
20. Hotel Coral Essex $500 #1 2017

Teams in ALL CAPS finished in the Top 20 in 2012 as well.

The top team this year was Dead Cracker Babies (John Duckworth). DCB’s is a great comeback story. Back in 2010, DCB was the consensus favorite on paper following the maiden draft going with what seemed to be a redraft-centric draft. Part of that strategy involved trading his 1st rounder away for additional value in Year 1. Due to injuries and underperformances, things did not go as planned and his team ended up winning the 1.1, for another team. In each of the next two years, DCB again took down either the 1.1 or 1.2, each time for another team. That would be enough to break many a Dynasty owner, but not DCB. In 2013, undeterred by the curse that seemed to follow his team, he AGAIN traded away his future 1st rounder. But this time, propelled by Peyton Manning, Jimmy Graham and Josh Gordon (among other studs), not only did he make the playoffs, DCB took down the #1 spot overall across all FFPC Dynasty Leagues! This does not have the looks of a one hit wonder either. He has a team built to keep it going for years. Patience and perseverance paid off. Excellent work, John!

I made a huge trade today in DFWC League #5.

I gave Doug Martin and Tavon Austin
I received Dez Bryant

I made the offer this morning and it was promptly accepted. I toyed with the idea of offering Doug Martin and a late 1st for Dez instead with the thought of working my way up to Tavon Austin if I had to, but I decided not to fool around with this one and went with the offer I thought had a good chance of being accepted right off the bat.

I always worry about giving up too much value in a 2 for 1 (which has backfired on me all too many times), particularly where one of the two is also an elite player (Doug Martin), but I really had to have Dez for the nucleus that I want for this particular team. I might not have made a trade like this for one of my other DFWC teams with fewer resources (and lower aspirations). Overall, I think this is one of those win-win trades for both teams.

A few weeks prior to Justin Blackmon's most recent suspension, I traded him straight up for Doug Martin (post-injury of course). Blackmon without the off-field problems is a top 7 WR. In the DFWC format where WRs are kings (because they score more points than RBs and TEs in PPR, the elite ones last longer than RB and you can start up to 5 of them), Doug Martin was an appropriate price for Blackmon (particularly for a team looking to win now). Of course, there were obvious risks to holding Blackmon (as there is holding a player like Josh Gordon), and this time, the risk blew up on Blackmon owners (of which I continue to be one in other leagues). It seems for now, at least in this league, that I dodged a bullet. You know the saying, "Better to be lucky than good".

Also in the last few weeks, I was able to add Jermaine Gresham ($88) and Markus Wheaton ($315) off the waiver wire.

My team (still under construction) is now:

Ryan Tannehill/Eli Manning

Doug Martin

Calvin Johnson
Julio Jones
Percy Harvin
Cordarrelle Patterson
Tavon Austin
Markus Wheaton

Jermaine Gresham
Ladarius Green
Vance McDonald

1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 1.4, 1.5, 1.6, 1.7, 1.10, 1.11, 1.12

Want to see where your FFPC dynasty team stacks up against the best of the best (and/or how far you still need to go to get there)? Here are the Top 20 scoring teams in 2013 through Week 10 (out of 26 total leagues).

1. Michigan Fanatics ($500 #8) 1786.50
2. Leg Humpers ($500 #2) 1680.00
3. Dead Cracker Babies ($750 #2) 1677.45
4. Atom Bombs ($750 #9) 1675.55
5. Rude Awakening ($1250 #2) 1671.50
6. Cavalier King Charles ($750 #4) 1642.80
7. Bobcats ($750 #7) 1641.35
8. Cavalier King Charles ($750 #2) 1625.55
9. Gridiron Assassin Squad ($750 #6) 1625.10
10. Atom Bombs ($1250 #2) 1618.00
11. Rude Awakening ($750 #1) 1609.80
12 Down and Out ($1250 #4) 1608.50
13. Hawkeye Hellraisers ($750 #3) 1607.65
14. Big Red ($750 #4) 1607.25
15. K9 Dynasty ($1250 #3) 1599.35
16. Big Pork Sammich ($1250 #3) 1585.05
17. HGH ($750 #6) 1575.20
18. Miscreants ($750 #1) 1573.90
19. Mad Genius of FB ($500 #2) 1573.40
20. MojoRizen ($500 #5) 1544.55

Most notably in 2013, Michigan Fanatics (Mark Peraino) is running away with top team honors with the following lineup: Peyton Manning, Jamaal Charles, Danny Woodhead, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Andre Johnson, Wes Welker, Martellus Bennett. Wow! Nicely done.

My teams that finished at #1 and #3 overall last year are hanging back at #6 and #8 this year. Rude Awakening (Josh Smith) has two teams in the top 20 at #5 and #11 overall, as does Atom Bombs (Adam Grossman) at #4 and #10 overall.

Its tough to stay on top beyond one year, but 5 teams from last year’s top 20 are again in this year’s top 20. They are Cavalier King Charles ($750 #4) (#1 in 2012), Bobcats ($750 #7) (#2 in 2012), Cavalier King Charles ($750 #2) (#3 in 2012), Atom Bombs ($1250 #2) (#15 in 2012), and K9 Dynasty ($1250 #3) (#10 in 2012).

Earlier today, I made a pair of the biggest trades that I recall making for one team in one day. I made it in the DFWC for “the team with the 11 1sts”.

Despite the meager beginnings (only 5 players drafted during the maiden draft), I’ve had and continue to have designs on making this team the greatest team I have ever constructed and quite possibly the best dynasty team EVER. Lofty goals, but one can dream.

First, the highlights since my last entry on this team back in August:

(1) Before the season started, I traded Cam Newton to a potential contender for Percy Harvin (on IR) and Keenan Allen (pre-breakout).

(2) Free agent waiver wire has been slim thus far, but I did strike gold with Julius Thomas over the summer and silver with Philip Rivers.

(3) Philip Rivers and a 3rd rounder turned into Reuben Randle by trade.

(4) The twelfth 1st rounder, the one I don’t have, got off to a fast start and is the 2nd highest scoring team thus far – so all good on that front.

The transformation from skeleton crew to “best team ever” will take time, and I really wasn’t planning on making anything big happen until the offseason, particularly anything involving first rounders. When it comes to firsts, I am better off waiting until the offseason when the value of the firsts skyrocket. For those looking for future firsts, this time of year is usually the best time to shop. That said, you don’t get the opportunity to bring on elite players everyday, so when the opportunity arises, you do what you have to do.

Following the Julio news last week, I began to put out feelers in the few leagues in which I didn’t already own him. I acquired him in the $1250 FFPC Dynasty league (Demaryius for Julio and a 1st) and in another DFWC Dynasty League, the “one with the 6 1sts” (AJ Green and Demaryius Thomas for Julio Jones, Randall Cobb and what is currently the 1.2). Here, I made an offer of Julius Thomas and Reuben Randle for Julio Jones – offer rejected.

Last night, a week after my initial offer, I received an inquiry regarding my prior offer and what I might be willing to add and what it might take to get a deal done. I always appreciate the open lines of communication with leaguemates. In this case, the detail provided was great. It makes trades so much easier to get done, trades that make sense for both teams. So I made an offer, and the offer was accepted this morning. Julius Thomas, Reuben Randle and what will likely be a mid 1st rounder for Julio Jones. Julio will be the cornerstone for my team and is just what the team needed.

With the juices flowing from the trade, I immediately scanned rosters for the possibility of adding another cornerstone and made two offers, one for AJ Green and another for Calvin Johnson. The bait, Rob Gronkowski (a day away from his return) and Keenan Allen (the latest dynasty rock star). Late this evening, Calvin Johnson was mine. Gronk and Allen may be a bit much for any one player, but Calvin is one of those guys for whom you have to overpay to have a shot.

Now would be a good time for a self-imposed breather before I get too carried away and overspend unnecessarily. I’ll focus on a few necessary tweaks in the meantime.

The team, post-trades:

QB: Ryan Tannehill, Eli Manning
RB: No one of note, plan is to draft rookie studs
WR: Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, Percy Harvin, Justin Blackmon, Cordarrelle Patterson, Tavon Austin
TE: Ladarius Green, Vance McDonald

Future picks: 1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 1.4, 1.5, 1.6, 1.8, 1.9, 1.10, 1.12, 2.5

The transformation has begun, but it will take time.

For all Julio Jones Dynasty owners, today is a sad day. Fantasy football can be so cruel at times. If you own Julio, then you were most likely in serious playoff contention only to have those hopes suddenly and brutally crushed. I share your pain.

I am a HUGE Julio fan and in the offseason considered him to be the #1 overall dynasty player (in any PPR format). His performance this year only confirmed what I had already believed.

Before the devastating news, I owned Julio in approximately $5,500(!!!) worth of dynasty leagues, all of which teams would be in the playoffs if the season ended today. The loss of Julio is a bigger loss to me than the loss of any other player could be (and that’s after losing Aaron Hernandez in $3,000+ earlier this year).

Accordingly, it may well be that I am in such deep mourning that I am choosing to kid myself in believing that there is a silver lining. That is, outside of perhaps only Jimmy Graham in 1.5 PPR for TE, Julio owners STILL own the #1 overall dynasty player.

As such, Julio Jones is still and should remain for the foreseeable future almost untouchable. Now only 24 years old, he was on his way to what would have been a ridiculous season in 2013. He has become what Calvin was 4 years ago (just before the general Dynasty public caught on that Calvin was untouchable). He is, for all tense and purposes, the same guy in Dynasty that Calvin was in his younger years. He is a better Dynasty asset than AJ Green, better than Dez Bryant and even better than Calvin himself (considering age). Now to some, the foot injury clouds Julio’s future, but the uncertainty and perceived risk for the long term seems overblown to me given the full recovery of others with more worrisome injuries.

So, while the temptation will be there, I advise Julio owners to stay strong and not to sell unless one of the following players are involved (in PPR): AJ Green, Dez Bryant, Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas and, in 1.5PPR for TE, Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski. Trade Julio for a so-called “elite” RB you say? Don’t you dare! How about a deal involving Randall Cobb? Tempting, but resist the urge.

Trade Julio for Calvin? Ok, go ahead and do it if you’re in contention, but realize that you will be somewhat worse for wear this time next year. I couldn’t resist and traded Julio and a 3rd rounder for Calvin in a $750 FFPC Dynasty League. It took that kind of offer for me to pull the trigger.

Tread carefully Julio Jones owners, and good luck.

So how do you get to eleven 1sts in a startup?

For one, you have to be proactive and trade early and often. If some other team gets an early jump collecting firsts, you probably aren’t going to end up with more than a few extra firsts. I tend to overpay a bit on the first few firsts in order to get the momentum going and to discourage others that may have had the same idea of collecting firsts (it is now more common than it once was). Overpaying, of course, has its downside (big ones) so I don’t recommend doing that often.

Here are the trades I made to get to eleven in the DFWC.

PRE-DRAFT TRADES

Trade 1
I gave: 2.12
I received: 4.05 and a First
Comment: One of my favorite combos year after year. The guys I REALLY like usually dry up a little before the end of the 2nd round, so the drop to the 4.05 is usually not all that big for me.

Trade 2
I gave: 7.01
I received: First
Comment: Slight overpay. You can often draft a mid-1st 2013 round rookie at 7.01, so the question is whether you would pay a current mid-1st for a random future 1st. I’d rather have the current mid-1st, but in the overall scheme of things, it was important for me to land the first few firsts early and this offer was on the table ready for me to accept.

Trade 3
I gave: 4.12 and 12.12
I received: 7.10, 13.10 and First
Comment: A little pricey for my taste. Big drop from 4.12 to 7.10 in terms of level of talent.

DRAFT STARTED

Trade 4
I gave: 1.01(!) and 3.01
I received: 1.03 and 2.10
Comment: I wanted to position myself better to have a chance at David Wilson with this trade. I like Julio Jones #1 overall, but taking him at 1.01 over Calvin Johnson is somewhat of a wasted opportunity to trade down a little. Unfortunately, this is all I could land.

Trade 5
I gave: 7.10, 11.01 and 13.10
I received: First
Comment: Again, a tad pricey, but I tend to give away my 11th+ rounders for cheap (usually too cheap)

Trade 6
I gave: 1.03 and 16.12
I received: 3.01, 4.10 and First
Comment: Hated to lose Julio, but I thought this would be worth it

Trade 7
I gave: 2.10 and 13.01
I received: 6.07, 9.06 and two Firsts
Comment: Given my goals, and assuming I could still land a Cordarrelle Patterson at 6.07, this was a good trade

Trade 8
I gave: 3.01, 4.05 and 6.07
I received: 2.11, 4.11 and 6.11
Comment: Small trade to land Gronk on the clock at 2.11

Trade 9
I gave: 6.12 and 10.12
I received: First
Comment: ill-advised trade, but this got me to nine firsts. I reluctantly accepted

Trade 10
I gave: 4.10 and 9.06
I received: 3.08
Comment: Not great as far as picks go, but Cam was still available on the clock at 3.08, and I decided to take the plunge to land the QB2 on my board. In hindsight, I’d rather have the 4.10 and 9.06

Trade 11
I gave: 8.12 and 9.01
I received: 18.11, 19.02, 20.11 and First
Comment: Again, expensive considering I had to forego Michael Floyd whom I prefer in a vacuum over a random First. However, this got me to ten and I would have it if that random first were to become the 1.2 next year (with my team obviously clinching the #1).

Trade 12
I gave: 14.12 and 18.12
I received: Second
Comment: Collecting what looked to be my last First (the last two would not sell), I decided to start collecting Seconds.

Trade 13
I gave: 15.01 and 17.01
I received: Second

Trade 14
I gave: 17.07, 18.11 and 19.01
I received: Second

Trade 15
I gave: 19.02, 20.06, 20.11 and 20.12
I received: Second

Trade 16
I gave: Four Seconds (including my sure 2.1)
I received: First
Comment: This will probably end up being an overpay, but I have too many picks next year (with the short rosters). You never know, the first may end up being a top one, making this trade a win. I also really wanted #11.

POST-DRAFT

Trade 17
I gave: Fourth
I received: Da’Rick Rogers
Comment: Value play

Trade 18 I gave: Cam Newton, Bilal Powell and Andre Roberts
I received: Percy Harvin, Ryan Tannehill and Keenan Allen
Comment: Good trade for both teams, as I don’t need Harvin to produce this year.


MY DRAFT
2.11 Rob Gronkowski: Good value, but this came on the heals of the back surgery news. Nobody wanted him.
3.08 Cam Newton: Another good value, but I paid a premium to land him from the 4.10
4.11 Tavon Austin: I really like him.
5.01 Justin Blackmon: Terrible offseason thus far, but for a team that can wait, he could end up being a great value even this early. Plus, Torrey Smith got snagged at 4.12.
6.11 Cordarrelle Patterson: Love Patterson this late.

MY FREE AGENT PICKUPS

To get a sense of what is available on the waiver wire, I have thus far picked up the following players using part of my $1,000 FAAB budget. With rosters of 20 and starting lineup requirements deeper than any other 12-team league I am in, there are sure to be good values later in the year especially during bye weeks. It will be difficult for teams to continue to hold “potential” future studs in this format (particularly when everyone else is playing to win having already traded their future firsts to me). On the other hand, I should have ample room this year to carry fringe players with potential.

Bilal Powell: $2
Andre Roberts: $8
Dustin Keller: $18
Dion Lewis: $1
Kenjon Barner: $1
Ladarius Green: $1
Vance McDonald: $2
Julius Thomas: $4
Austin Collie: $3
Philip Rivers: $1
TJ Graham: $1
Rod Streater: $1

The FFPC – The Introduction of Mass Firsts in High Stakes Dynasty

In the 2010 maiden draft for the $1250 FFPC Dynasty League, the highest stakes dynasty league at the time, I came out of the startup draft with 6 future first round picks. At the time, such a feat was rare and seemed to many an outrageous strategy, particularly in a high stakes league with smaller rosters. Many (including, at times, myself) questioned whether I took it too far.

As one prominent FFPC player commented:

“How do people spend 1250 for next year and beyond? Next year your QBs will suck, Next year your TEs are weak at best, next year your WR are below average, Next year your RB depth will be thin. Next year, if you have 1.1, 1.2 and 1.3 you will have to hit on all three (which you won't) to have a chance. (Reggie Bush DMac etc) But the good news is after 3 years and $3750 you might make the playoffs in year four.”

Fortunately it didn’t take as long as that poster predicted for that team to make the playoffs. While not the success I had hoped for, the results were decent with a 2nd place finish in Year 2 and a 3rd place finish in Year 3. The success in Year 2 (which was a Tony Romo Week 16 zero (thumb to helmet) away from winning the title) was enough for other FFPC players to take notice (and to encourage some others to try the strategy themselves in the years to follow).

In that same year, I also acquired five 1sts in a $750 FFPC Dynasty League. By Year 3 (2012), I had won that league (and a cool $4,550) and am going into Year 4 as the favorite to win it all again (despite the loss of Aaron Hernandez this offseason). Results show that going five and six first rounders in 2010 was not going too far after all.

In 2011, I entered another $750 FFPC Dynasty League startup and decided to push the envelope out a little more, this time leaving the startup draft with nine(!!) future first rounders and a skeleton crew (albeit an extremely well drafted skeleton crew). In Year 2, I won the title and am going into Year 3 as the heavy favorite to win it all again with the best team on paper in the FFPC’s 26 leagues. Apparently, going nine first rounders was not going too far either.

The Dynasty Football World Championships – A Tale of Two Teams

In 2013, I decided to take the strategy a little further, this time in the Dynasty Football World Championships - a $299-entry, 12-league, 144-team competition (PPR). There, I drafted a ridiculous Year 1 team (ridiculous, meaning ridiculously bad) but left the startup draft with eleven (!!!) future first rounders. I really took things to the extreme here by leaving the draft with just five players. Those five players were Rob Gronkowski (1PPR), Cam Newton, Tavon Austin, Cordarrelle Patterson and Justin Blackmon - a nice but not elite bunch. I drafted so few players in part because of the relatively high prices that I had to pay for 1sts. In some cases, I paid early 6th round prices for a random future 1st, which is higher than I had been willing to pay in prior startups and which is probably more than anyone should be paying for a random first. Since then, I made one trade of Cam Newton, Bilal Powell (free agent pickup) and Andre Roberts (another pickup) for Percy Harvin (post surgery), Keenan Allen and Ryan Tannehill, not the best of trades, but one that made sense for this particular team.

Ok, so now I have eleven future first rounders which are sure to be quite valuable next year, but will it be enough to offset the skimpy start and permit the evolution to a dominant team? I wish the answer were a definitive “yes”, but I wasn’t entirely sure at first given that eleven firsts with a team as thin as this is unchartered territory in high stakes dynasty. Did I finally go too far? Did I acquire too many firsts and/or did I pay too much in doing so? Upon further analysis, evidence suggests that I probably did not.

I compare this team with another team I drafted in the DFWC. With that other team, I left the startup draft with “only” 6 firsts but a much better initial team as a result. That team consists of the following key players (after a few post-startup trades): AJ Green, Demaryius Thomas, Giovanni Bernard, Cordarrelle Patterson, Justin Blackmon and Michael Floyd. As compared to the team with eleven firsts, it is easier to draw the conclusion that this team, with its elite core of AJ Green and Demaryius Thomas, its complementary future studs in Bernard, Patterson, Blackmon and Floyd, and its six firsts WILL evolve into a dominant team. That is the conclusion I draw for this team. But how does this team really compare to the team with eleven firsts?
By cancelling out equal or comparable values (i.e., Demaryius for Gronk, Bernard for Tavon, Patterson for Patterson, Blackmon for Blackmon and 1sts for 1sts), what I am left with is roughly AJ Green and Michael Floyd on one team and Percy Harvin and 5 1sts on the other. I would personally take Harvin and 5 1sts over Green and Floyd, but in any event, the values are at the very least comparable. This suggests to me that the team with eleven first rounders is at least as good or possibly even better than the team with AJ/Demaryius and 6 firsts, a team I have already concluded will be dominant.

Bottomline, I believe results will show that going even eleven firsts and paying inflated prices to get there is still not going too far.

Hey guys, long break again as real life work has heated up. I’ve entered three teams into the Dynasty Football World Championships (each at $299), a 12-league, 144-team dynasty competition. The maiden drafts are ongoing now, and each team thus far is looking very promising in their own way. Very exciting! I’ll share the details later, but a question came up on the fftoolbox message boards regarding the value of rookie picks. The question was “So, one team has already amassed 6 1st round picks. How valuable are rookie draft picks? How do they compare to maiden drafts?”

My answer:

Really depends on the method you use to value rookies.

Judging by way of where rookies will get drafted in the DFWC maiden drafts this year, I’d guess the median value of all of the future 1st rounders (i.e., the 1.6 or 1.7) will be in the mid 7th range, maybe in the 8th in some leagues.

The best rookie picks (the ones from the worst teams) could be very valuable (depending on the class). The worst are probably 10th round value or worse (depending on class). Problem is, if you acquire picks like I am (sight unseen), you are really buying random 1sts.

So, paying more than a 7th round value for a future 1st is high, since you can simply draft the 1.6 or 1.7 rookie this year at a mid-7th round price. That said, my 1st deal this year was a straight up 7.1 for a 1st, which was already above median value. I knew I wanted to acquire mass picks, and I had to get the ball rolling quickly before the future 1st competition in the league (aka Ground and Pound) got their acquiring momentum going.

Given Scott’s lectures on the value of one’s first (6th round by the way for a random first is too high imo – grrrrrr), I knew I would have to pay more for 1sts this year than in some other leagues. The last one I acquired was at a price of 6.12+10.12 (a rough value of a late 5th). Considering that you can probably acquire a top 4 rookie in the late 5th this year, that price is very pricey. So Im probably going a bit overboard on price, but you never know when that one pick you didn’t acquire will be a top 3 pick next year. Plus, it was the 9th 1st for that team and I felt like I had enough resources to go ahead and splurge a bit. I think there is a little extra value in acquiring 8+ picks where each pick will be worth a little more on average than if you were just acquiring only 1 extra 1st.

Ive seen some serious overpaying for 1sts thus far (probably thanks to Scott). I think in one league, someone paid a 3.8 for 1 first rounder, and then a 4.3 for a second, and this was before the draft even began (i.e., before you have any indication as to how good or bad that team will be). That’s crazy since the first rookie this year won’t even be taken at 3.8 or 4.3. If those picks turn out to be merely average (and how can they be worse when you’ve given them an extra 3.8 or 4.3 to start), he would have traded a 3.8 this year for a 7.6 value next year and a 4.3 for a 7.10. Essentially a ticket to dynasty hell. That’s one team that league wont have to worry about for years, if ever.

Scott is right, you need to be careful selling your 1st too cheaply. But, unless you know what you’re doing, buying a 1st for more than 7th round value can be dangerous as well.

Here’s a link to the discussion. http://www.fftoolboxforums.com/index.php?showtopic=30513#entry123746

Is David Wilson the next CJ Spiller?

Like Spiller, Wilson is an electric back that can explode around the corner with great acceleration. While not quite as fast as Spiller, there is little doubt in my mind that Wilson is just as big a threat to take any particular carry to the house.

While dynamic like Spiller, the report on Wilson from his college days was that he runs with more power. The limited footage of Wilson’s rookie season appears to be bearing this out. Wilson’s inside game and power may be better suited for taking on a greater feature back workload (and the all important goal line work) than Spiller’s.

Spiller’s advantage over Wilson at this point was/is Spiller’s ability as a receiver. If you recall, Spiller’s receiving skills were so good that Buffalo even dabbled using Spiller as a slot receiver (the reverse Percy Harvin). In PPR, Spiller’s receiving ability can potentially make all the difference in the world. While I don’t think Wilson will ever match Spiller in that area, I do believe he’ll receive enough screen passes and dump offs in the flat to be a fantastic PPR running back.

As for their situations following their rookie seasons, the two backs are very similar in that regard. Like Spiller, Wilson played as a backup his rookie year. In Wilson’s case, he barely saw the field for most of the year (due to one inopportune fumble landing him in the dog house). Both players made their marks as gifted kickoff returners. Both were seemingly underutilized but destined to do much more.

Like the Bills’ situation going into 2011, the Giants’ backfield has the looks of an RBBC going into 2013 as well. I’d say, however, that Wilson’s situation today is superior to that of Spiller’s in 2011 from an opportunity perspective and a standpoint of how that situation is likely to affect Wilson’s value following 2013. Bradshaw for one is the walking wounded, and even when healthy, Wilson may prove to be too good to keep in an RBBC. Bradshaw, while turning only 27, is not nearly the back that Fred Jackson was at age 30 (and is not even the back that Bradshaw himself was just a few years ago). Bradshaw does not present the obstacle to Wilson’s ascension to a starting role that Jackson did to Spiller’s. Advantage Wilson. Spiller ended up playing behind Fred Jackson in Year 2 until Jackson got hurt, after which Spiller strutted his stuff. I think Wilson can do the same if/when given the same opportunity. By the way, in case he crossed your mind, I don’t believe Andre Brown poses any real threat to Wilson in that regard.

From a performance standpoint, while both backs did little in their rookie seasons, Wilson showed more. Spiller believers were left to latch onto his performances in college to support their continued faith in him, while Wilson supporters at least have some NFL footage to go by as well. Unfortunately, this means that David Wilson may not come at the same discount that Spiller did back in 2011, but I don’t think Wilson is that much more hyped than Spiller was either. Wilson is still obtainable by trade (albeit at a price perceived by many to be highly inflated – personally, I think he is still way undervalued).

In any event, I am not here to tell you that Wilson is now or will be in a few years better than Spiller from a skills or performance perspective. I believe Spiller is still on the rise. Wilson will not be out-producing Spiller any time soon. I’m not about to be so bold to tell you that Wilson is more talented than Spiller. Spiller may be the most talented back in the NFL.

What I am saying though is that Wilson’s dynasty value has a very good chance of surpassing that of Spiller if not by the end of this year, then by the end of the next; and it is all made possible by the greatest equalizer in dynasty fantasy football, age.

At this point in Spiller’s career (i.e., after his rookie year), Spiller was 23. Wilson is only 21. That’s a 2 year advantage to Wilson, a significant advantage to say the least. Take Spiller today, a fantastic young RB (25 going on 26) with the promise of a great career ahead of him. His dynasty value is already a top 12 overall player as it should be. Now, imagine if Spiller were just 23 going on 24 (which is what Wilson would be after his third year). What would his value be then? Arguably, the #1 player overall!

Wilson has two years to equal what Spiller has done up to this point, which is to produce a fantasy season commensurate with an RB1. That certainly is no easy feat, but I do believe that there is a very good chance that he will. If he does reach that level of production, I believe he will be considered at that time the #1 player overall in dynasty, a designation carrying with it immense value.

How much is that “potential” worth to you today? For me, it is a top 7 or 8 RB value and a top 20 overall dynasty player. Sound crazy for a running back that has rushed for only 358 yards in his career? Maybe, but I think there is a very good chance that I am STILL undervaluing him at that ranking.

DOMINATE OR BE DESTROYED!

It didn’t take long to begin the dismantling of my $1250 team. It was a good team that had a decent shot of placing/cashing again in 2013 in my estimation. Ultimately though, I know this team will never reach its max potential without a good rebuild to make up for some of the critical mistakes I made up to this point.

For that reason, I have decided to spend the year scaling back and replacing producing vets with faster appreciating assets, namely 2014 1sts.

I believe this team has the necessary resources for a successful, worthwhile and quick rebuild with elite players McCoy, Spiller, Dez and RGIII, another very good player in Mike Wallace, and a number of other good players in Miles Austin, Tony Romo, Vernon Davis, Jermichael Finley, Josh Gordon and Danario Alexander, among others.

The trick will be to accumulate as many 2014 1st rounders as possible (in order to maximize the number of ping pong balls for the all important top 2 picks in 2014) while keeping the elite core of the team in place.

As soon as trading opened on New Years Eve, I began to work the emails, and less than 24 hours later, I traded away Tony Romo, Miles Austin and Jermichael Finley for a 2014 1st and the 1.10 in 2013 (which happened to be my own draft pick). If I were to rate the trade, I would give the other team the “win” by a good margin, but I accomplished what I needed to give the rebuild some momentum.

Another 24 hours later, I traded the cornerstone of my team, Lesean McCoy for Aaron Hernandez and another 2014 1st. McCoy lost a bit (but only a bit) of his luster since this time last year, but he is still an elite player in this format, and trading elite players is usually not a recipe for success in the FFPC. An exception to the rule is where you land another elite player in return, and in my opinion, Aaron Hernandez is in fact an elite player in a format that heavily favors TEs.

From there, I traded my 2014 3rd rounder for Josh Freeman, my 2014 4th rounder for Chris Givens and my 2013 1.10 for another 2014 1st rounder.

I also traded Mike Wallace (whom I still like quite a bit) for this year’s 1.1 rookie pick. The trade gives me flexibility to draft a RB that can hopefully serve as my RB2/RB3 or trade for a young vet, additional 2013/2014 rookie picks or both. While no one (including me) is particularly high on this year’s draft, I anticipate that the top picks will still have good market value come draft time (as they always do).

Here’s what I have for now:

RGIII
Mike Vick
Josh Freeman

CJ Spiller
Jon Stewart
Rashard Mendenhall
Daryl Richardson
Bilal Powell

Dez Bryant
Danario Alexander
Josh Gordon
Greg Little
Chris Givens

Aaron Hernandez
Vernon Davis

2013 Picks: 1.01 and 1.02
2014 Picks: 4 1st rounders

It’s a good start to my plan. The only worry is that I’m not sure I’ll have the patience to wait this one out. With a $7,000 first place prize and a team that could still compete (quite nicely imo) in 2013 if I were to convert the 2013 draft picks into producing vets, the temptation to revert back to a win-now team will be tough to overcome. What I need now (while I still have the resolve to rebuild) is a trade that takes me to a point where turning back is no longer an option. CJ Spiller perhaps? Hmmmm.