Dec/19/15 11:55 PM
Yikes! It's been a long time since my last post, and I didn’t realize I had not at least posted the draft results.
The “first round” rookies thus far haven’t exactly lit up the dynasty world, so I post these results with a little less enthusiasm than I would have if I had posted shortly after the league’s rookie draft. Here they are:
1.1 Amari Cooper
1.2 Todd Gurley
1.3 Kevin White
1.4 Melvin Gordon
1.6 Nelson Agholor
1.7 Dorial Green-Beckham
1.8 Ameer Abdullah
1.9 TJ Yeldon
1.11 Phillip Dorsett
1.12 Tevin Coleman
I tried to trade for the 1.5 for the clean sweep during the draft but the price was too high. I then ended up trading the 1.10 for a 2016 1st rounder (which I know now to be the 1.7).
I added Matthew Stafford during the season, but otherwise, I made zero progress with this team by trade or waiver wire. Here’s what I now have going into the offseason:
QB: Derek Carr, Matthew Stafford
RB: Todd Gurley, TJ Yeldon, Melvin Gordon, Ameer Abdullah, Tevin Coleman, Tre Mason
WR: AJ Green, Alshon Jeffery, Amari Cooper, Kevin White, Dorial Green Beckham, Nelson Agholor, Phillip Dorsett, Cody Latimer
TE: Coby Fleener, Vance McDonald
I also have the 2016 1.2, 1.6 and 2 other late firsts (not yet determined).
The team is not exactly what I had envisioned up to this point, but it is still a strong team with potential to be great. There are a lot of “we’ll sees” in this bunch, but I think there is a good chance a number of the rookies (beyond Gurley and Cooper) will hit and become among the elite. Add to those rookies an impact player at 1.2 in 2016, and I can only imagine that this team will be a monster. Unfortunately, imagining is all I can do right now, as the rookies did not produce as I had hoped they might in 2015.
Mar/14/15 08:50 AM
More prepping for the experiment. I shipped out Tyler Eifert and the extra 2016 3rd I received from a prior trade for a 2016 1st from a good team. Cody Latimer is now the last player of any value on this roster outside of AJ Green and Alshon Jeffery. Green and Jeffery are not likely going anywhere.
The team now has its 11 1sts in 2015 and 3 1sts in 2016.
Mar/09/15 11:07 AM
And another clean up trade to jettison any non-rookie. I traded Martavis Bryant and the extra 2016 2nd I received in a trade yesterday for another team's 2016 1st.
Tyler Eifert and Cody Latimer may be next. It would be nice to have a totally clean slate to start this experiment. That would include trading away Alshon Jeffery and maybe even AJ Green if I could find a buyer with enough resources. Since I own 11 of the 12 2015 1sts, my options are very limited. There isn't much that potential buyers can offer right now for those elite players that would both fit this experiment and roughly equal those players' value. I will likely just have to stand pat on the both, at least until next year.
Mar/08/15 08:21 PM
Made a player for picks trade to clean up the roster to fit the experiment a little better. I shipped out Colin Kaepernick and Coby Fleener together for a 2016 2nd rounder and 2016 3rd rounder.
Mar/05/15 08:41 PM
Welcome to Dynasty Lab.
My first experiment will involve a second-year DFWC team that has AJ Green, Alshon Jeffery and 11 first round rookie picks in the 2015 draft. I’ve been there and done that, but I’ve always traded those picks for stud vets like Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, etc. to form powerhouse teams. Yawn.
In this Dynasty Lab experiment, I won’t be trading ANY of the 11 firsts for vets. I will be drafting most, if not all, of those firsts, and the rest I'll trade for a few firsts next year. The rules for this experiment are simple.
Rule 1, I cannot trade any current year 1sts for any vet. For at least one regular season, I cannot trade any of the rookies drafted (or future 1st round picks acquired) for a vet.
Rule 2, which is a restatement of Rule 1, I must either draft a rookie for each 1st round pick or trade that pick for other rookie picks (present or future). Any rookie drafted (or future 1st round picks acquired), for at least one regular season, may be traded only for other rookies or future rookie picks. Current or future 2nd round picks and later may be traded at will.
Rule 3, repeat Rules 1 and 2 for the 2016 and 2017 seasons.
Purpose: I’ve always wondered what my powerhouse teams would look like if I did not convert the rookie picks into studs…if I did not take the shortcut to glory. Focusing on the future and youth has always been a mantra of mine, but this will take it to the extreme. I ALWAYS inevitably break down and trade some or all of the picks/youth for studs and am left wondering what could have been. This experiment will force me to do what I am not naturally inclined to do, and should provide further insight on the optimal Dynasty strategy.
Can a lineup containing predominantly rookies compete in 2015? Although, I am curious to see the answer, winning is not a consideration. That's the beauty of Dynasty Lab! It's all about the education.
What I would be more interested to learn is whether a team focusing on this rookie strategy can or will in time become more dominant than even the best of my other DFWC teams. Will the artificial restrictions I am putting on this team, which are designed to prevent me from making some of the biggest mistakes I have made in the past, allow this team to achieve its full potential where my other teams did not?
By Year 3 (next year), this team will have a bunch of second year players on the roster, at least initially. At that point, I can trade those non-rookies for any pick or player. As a result, the team will likely start to look like some of my other powerhouse teams in Year 3 but with perhaps even more firepower.
Here is the team today:
QB: Colin Kaepernick, Derek Carr
RB: All junk that will be dropped.
WR: AJ Green, Alshon Jeffery, Martavis Bryant, Cody Latimer, Marqise Lee, Paul Richardson, Kevin Norwood, Hakeem Nicks
TE: Tyler Eifert, Coby Fleener, Jared Cook
Keep in mind, DFWC rosters are limited to 20 (including defense and kicker), so I would need to drop a lot of the players currently on the roster to make room for the incoming rookies.
My prediction is that this team will finish in the middle of the pack in 2015. Playoffs in the DFWC are reserved for only the top 4 teams, so it is unlikely that this team will make it in 2015 unless this year's rookie class puts up similar numbers to the rookies last year (in which case, the team will likely win the league).
In 2016, I predict that this team will be the best team in the league, the highest scoring team and the league champion. It will be the youngest team by far. It will also threaten the overall crown in the DFWC in 2016. As compared to my other DFWC teams, it will take over as my second best team behind only my team in League #5. Overall, pretty impressive.
By 2017, it will be shocking to most how good this team has become, perhaps reaching a level not seen before in the DFWC or elsewhere.
For those reading and watching, I can see most (including even me) thinking the following:
Early 2015: This team looks like a failure already. What a waste!
Mid 2015: Still bad. I can't believe this guy blew 11 first rounders on this.
Early 2016: Ok, there is some potential here.
Mid 2016: Wow, this team is surprisingly good. I can really buy into this.
Early 2017: Now I see the light. This team is awesome.
Post 2017 Rookie Draft: Holy ____ ! This team is insane!!!
2018: This team is crowned Dynasty King 2018
It will take patience, and at the end of it all, this experiment could be a complete bust. Either way, I expect that we'll learn a lot about rookies and the true value of rookie picks once this multi-year experiment is done.