Hey guys, long break again as real life work has heated up. I’ve entered three teams into the Dynasty Football World Championships (each at $299), a 12-league, 144-team dynasty competition. The maiden drafts are ongoing now, and each team thus far is looking very promising in their own way. Very exciting! I’ll share the details later, but a question came up on the fftoolbox message boards regarding the value of rookie picks. The question was “So, one team has already amassed 6 1st round picks. How valuable are rookie draft picks? How do they compare to maiden drafts?”

My answer:

Really depends on the method you use to value rookies.

Judging by way of where rookies will get drafted in the DFWC maiden drafts this year, I’d guess the median value of all of the future 1st rounders (i.e., the 1.6 or 1.7) will be in the mid 7th range, maybe in the 8th in some leagues.

The best rookie picks (the ones from the worst teams) could be very valuable (depending on the class). The worst are probably 10th round value or worse (depending on class). Problem is, if you acquire picks like I am (sight unseen), you are really buying random 1sts.

So, paying more than a 7th round value for a future 1st is high, since you can simply draft the 1.6 or 1.7 rookie this year at a mid-7th round price. That said, my 1st deal this year was a straight up 7.1 for a 1st, which was already above median value. I knew I wanted to acquire mass picks, and I had to get the ball rolling quickly before the future 1st competition in the league (aka Ground and Pound) got their acquiring momentum going.

Given Scott’s lectures on the value of one’s first (6th round by the way for a random first is too high imo – grrrrrr), I knew I would have to pay more for 1sts this year than in some other leagues. The last one I acquired was at a price of 6.12+10.12 (a rough value of a late 5th). Considering that you can probably acquire a top 4 rookie in the late 5th this year, that price is very pricey. So Im probably going a bit overboard on price, but you never know when that one pick you didn’t acquire will be a top 3 pick next year. Plus, it was the 9th 1st for that team and I felt like I had enough resources to go ahead and splurge a bit. I think there is a little extra value in acquiring 8+ picks where each pick will be worth a little more on average than if you were just acquiring only 1 extra 1st.

Ive seen some serious overpaying for 1sts thus far (probably thanks to Scott). I think in one league, someone paid a 3.8 for 1 first rounder, and then a 4.3 for a second, and this was before the draft even began (i.e., before you have any indication as to how good or bad that team will be). That’s crazy since the first rookie this year won’t even be taken at 3.8 or 4.3. If those picks turn out to be merely average (and how can they be worse when you’ve given them an extra 3.8 or 4.3 to start), he would have traded a 3.8 this year for a 7.6 value next year and a 4.3 for a 7.10. Essentially a ticket to dynasty hell. That’s one team that league wont have to worry about for years, if ever.

Scott is right, you need to be careful selling your 1st too cheaply. But, unless you know what you’re doing, buying a 1st for more than 7th round value can be dangerous as well.

Here’s a link to the discussion. http://www.fftoolboxforums.com/index.php?showtopic=30513#entry123746