Fantasy Football Dynasty League Market Value - Andre Johnson
Jul 14, 2010 11:46 AM
ANDRE JOHNSON (HOU)
Dynasty Talk Ranking: WR1 / #3 player overall
Market Ranking: WR1 / #5 player overall
Overview: A year ago, there was a mix of opinion on who was #1, with Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson carrying the most market value (and in many leagues, Fitz and Calvin were being drafted in startups as the #1 and #2 overall – including by yours truly where I took both Calvin and Fitz at 1.01 and 1.02 in the same league). Although he finished as the #1 performing WR in 2008, Andre Johnson was in most leagues still considered only the #3 WR last year at the top of the second tier of WRs which included a stellar and highly coveted group consisting of Greg Jennings, Roddy White, Brandon Marshall, Dwayne Bowe, Reggie Wayne and a few others. His #3 ranking in 2009 despite finishing #1 in 2008 was in part due to being older than Fitz/Calvin and in other part due to his prior injury history which was still fresh in the minds of dynasty players. But after ranking #1 again in 2009 in fantasy points (314 points in PPR), Andre Johnson has established himself as the clear WR1 for 2010.
Startup Draft Value: In dynasty startup drafts this year, he is usually taken as the 1.05 in PPR leagues (right after top 4 RBs) whether the lineup requirements require 1 or 2 RBs. While Calvin Johnson and/or Fitzgerald have still been drafted ahead of Andre Johnson in a handful of leagues, those leagues are few and far between.
Trade Value: As with the other super stud RBs and WRs (ADP, MJD, CJ3, Rice, Fitz, Calvin and AJ), you won’t often see Andre Johnson in a trade as the asking price is normally just too high. Unless the team holding Andre Johnson is in rebuild mode and has no chance of winning in 2010, Andre Johnson’s expected point production is just too high to give up in a deal (that another team is likely to be able to afford). You can get similar production out of Reggie Wayne and Randy Moss, but you can’t get that kind of production while maintaining high market value beyond 2010. Accordingly, with AJ, you get the best of all worlds – the highest level of production with a high likelihood that come 2011, he will continue to have top 10 overall value. I had one owner describe Andre Johnson to me as being basically untradeable, a word often used to describe Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson this time last year. Examples of deals involving a package of lesser players that might get it done for this powerhouse include Chris Wells and CJ Spiller, Rashard Mendenhall and Mike Sims-Walker, Sidney Rice and Jeremy Maclin, Brandon Marshall and Pierre Garcon, Ryan Mathews and Jahvid Best. In leagues where I own AJ, I would have to seriously consider any of those offers if offered. For some of my deeper teams, I would have to seriously consider making some of these offers in order to get AJ. Fitz and Calvin owners would likely need to add a little something to “upgrade” to AJ (a late 1st round rookie draft pick, for example), and MJD, ADP, CJ3 and Rice owners can usually expect to get a little something extra in a trade for AJ (a late 1st, if that).