Well, I am VERY happy with my team and this could go down as possibly the best dynasty team I’ve ever drafted (or at least top 3). Still, while the team has received praise from a few (special thanks to Red vs Blue Radio
for the kind words in their June 18 episode - love their show by the way), the draft strategy has understandably garnered quite a bit of criticism on the FFPC message boards. Fortunately, I’m not in this to look good now, but instead to DOMINATE in 2011 and beyond.
Here is my team (including where each player was drafted):
QB: David Garrard (17.12), Tim Tebow (20.02)
Commentary: By mid-draft, it was clear that this team was not going to be terribly competitive in 2010 so I waited and waited to draft my first QB so as not to “waste” an earlier pick on a mediocre QB. QBs are one of the easiest positions to fill after the initial year in a 12-teamer, particularly with the cut-down requirements here. While Garrard was a decent value at the end of the 17th, he is not likely going to make my team come 2011.
RB: Jon Stewart (2.10), Rashard Mendenhall (3.04), CJ Spiller (4.11), Rashad Jennings (20.11)
Commentary: This group is going to look very strong this time next year (already looking good now). I expect no less from Stewart and Mendenhall than the two being 1st round caliber startup picks this time next year (they already have been taken there this year in some startups). We’ll have to wait and see on Spiller, but from what I have seen, this guy is going to be elite. Rashad Jennings was my last pick as a late round flyer (I own him in a number of leagues) - not sure what the MJD owner was thinking not taking him as a handcuff.
WR: Vincent Jackson (4.08), Dwayne Bowe (6.01), Kenny Britt (7.11), Demaryius Thomas (7.12), Braylon Edwards (11.05), Lee Evans (14.01), Donnie Avery (14.09), Mardy Gilyard (20.01)
Commentary: Not stellar (for 2010), but very deep and packed with potential for 2011. Even with VJax potentially out all year, a lineup of Bowe, Edwards and Evans (with Avery, Britt, Thomas as reserves) could surprise in 2010. With VJax back in the fold in 2011, this startup draft is going to look like an excellent draft at WR this time next year.
TE: Jared Cook (13.02), Rob Gronkowski (18.01), Todd Heap (19.12)
Commentary: A clear weakness for 2010, but I am fairly high on Heap actually as a 2010 sleeper. Cook and to a lesser extent, Gronkowski, are going to be great mainstays at TE (in this format) for years to come, just not in 2010. Depending on how Cook develops this year, I may be in the market to acquire a stud TE in 2011.
K: Who cares.
Def: Vikings (15.12), Steelers (16.01)
Commentary: With only 20 roster spots, its tough to carry 2 defenses. But since you have to keep at least one defense come cut-down time next February, the top defenses should command good value (relatively), and I consider these two defenses as top caliber. The defenses may also be attractive trade targets for contenders mid-season.
Rookie Picks: 6 1st round draft choices (inclusive of my own). Better yet, based on my rough projections, I am confident that including my own team’s pick, I should have a good 4 of the top 6 picks.
Outlook and Strategy Going Forward:
If I am right about the picks, I should have plenty of resources this time next year with which to acquire the vet talent I need to become the frontrunner in 2011 and beyond. It is not unreasonable (imo) to equate the 6 picks to having the 1.1, 1.2 and 1.3 in 2011 (although, I think I will have more). Based on where the top 3 rookies were picked in the startup draft, if I had the 1.1, 1.2 and 1.3 this year, it would’ve been equivalent to having an extra 1.11, 2.07 and 3.07 in the startup draft - that is a huge advantage. Add that to Jon Stewart (whom I expect to be no less than a 1st round equivalent next year), Rashard Mendenhall (1st round equivalent next year), CJ Spiller (2nd round equivalent next year), Vincent Jackson (2nd round equivalent next year), Dwayne Bowe (3rd round equivalent next year), Demaryius Thomas (4th round equivalent next year) and Kenny Britt (5th round equivalent next year), I would have a 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th and 5th in startup equivalents as my top 10 players going into 2011 (granted, those are big IFs on the value appreciation I am assuming for the existing players). While it may be the case that I wont be able to get 1.11 value this time next year for the 1.01 rookie or 2.07 value this time next year for the 1.02 rookie (even though the top rookies were drafted there this year), even in this high stakes environment, I believe it would be reasonable to expect to get 2.07 value for the 1.01 and early 3rd value for the 1.02 (with late 3rd value for the 1.03). That still nets me a 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th and 5th as my top 10 next year, which should be more than enough to be the front runner in 2011. Chances are though, depending on the team makeup this time next year, I’ll look to keep at least one of the top rookie picks for myself.
Will this strategy work? Based on my experience in other leagues, I am pretty certain it will. But this is no ordinary league. At $1,250, the standard dynasty market concepts might not apply. I am banking that they will.