Talking Dynasty Fantasy Football


FFPC $750 Dynasty League / Rounds 5 and 6:

Here are the results for Rounds 5 and 6:

5.1 Vincent Jackson
5.2 Steve Smith (CAR)
5.3 Anquan Boldin
5.4 Philip Rivers
5.5 Percy Harvin
5.6 Cedric Benson
5.7 Jeremy Maclin
5.8 Mike Sims-Walker
5.9 Wes Welker
5.10 Dwayne Bowe
5.11 Joseph Addai
5.12 Matt Schaub

6.1 Reggie Bush
6.2 Mike Wallace
6.3 Zach Miller
6.4 Tom Brady
6.5 Justin Forsett
6.6 Kevin Kolb
6.7 Jay Cutler
6.8 Chad Ochocinco
6.9 Tony Gonzalez
6.10 Pierre Garcon
6.11 Owen Daniels
6.12 Chris Cooley

Not much to report in round 5 as far as my team goes, since I traded away the two picks I had. My next scheduled pick was at 7.02, but when the 6.03 was on the clock, I decided to trade up to 6.04 and planned on grabbing Zach Miller or Chad Ochocinco (interesting how natural that name sounds now). The trade was my 7.02, 8.08 and 11.07 for the 6.04, 9.08 and 11.12. Unfortunately, my first choice Zach Miller was taken at 6.03, and right as I was getting ready to select Chad Ochocinco (as my WR4), I decided last minute to take Tom Brady instead as I felt (1) he was very good value in the 6th, (2) he would have a bigger impact on my projected team totals in 2010 than Ochocinco would and (3) Brady could keep up elite production longer term than Ochocinco. Bottomline, from a fantasy football dynasty standpoint (and redraft), Tom Brady was the better choice.

My lineup now at that point was as follows:

QB Brady
RB [not filled]
WR Jennings
WR Rice
WR Nicks
TE [not filled]
Flx [not filled]

My biggest problem at this point was that my next pick was not until 8.04 and by then, the higher scoring TEs (the last likely being Kellen Winslow) would all be gone. 8.04 was reserved for taking a RB anyway (maybe Bradshaw, McFadden or Barber would be there), so I had to do make another move for a TE. I ended up trading the 8.8 and 9.8 for the 6.09 and 20.12. At 6.09, I took Tony Gonzalez, a move I normally would not make in other dynasty leagues since, at best, Gonzo would play 2 more years (and more likely 1 more). However, that one year is likely to be an elite level year (at 1.5 PPR) and, with 4 2011 1sts to add to the team next year (at least 2 of which I thought could really be special), I felt like I could afford to take Gonzalez here as a 1-year rental.

And speaking of those 2011 1sts, the Trade II prospects took a turn for the better after the 5th and 6th rounds as a result of the picks made by the Trade II owner, starting with Vincent Jackson at 5.01. Great dynasty pick and a TREMENDOUS value at 5.01 (probably would have been my pick at 5.01 as well) but it is not looking like he will be contributing much in 2010. At 5.4, he took Philip Rivers, another nice dynasty pick (and probably the best dynasty QB left on the board), but not the best QB available for redraft purposes given the whole VJax situation. Of course, if VJax plays starting Week 4, all that could change. Finally, at 6.02, the Trade II owner took Mike Wallace which again is more of a dynasty-type pick versus lets say, Ochocinco. So what could have been, as a worst case scenario for me, Anquan Boldin, Mike Sims Walker and Tony Gonzalez (not the best dynasty choices, but which would have been the death of the pick’s value), I got (well, he got) VJax, Rivers and Wallace instead. A huge swing, and without another pick until the 9th round, this team would be hard pressed to draft enough redraft types to make a serious run in 2010. Fantastic dynasty team being built by the Trade II owner with a top 7 that may be unrivaled in value going into 2011 (similar to what I was trying to do in the $1250 - except even a BETTER top end), but I’ll worry about that in 2011.

The Trade I pick is shaping up nicely as well after starting out with Calvin/Crabtree. At 3.09, the Trade I owner took Jahvid Best (dynasty pick), at 4.04 Felix Jones (another dynasty pick) and then traded down into the 5th and 6th rounds to improve later picks. At the end of the day, what was an extra 4th round pick advantage became an extra 6th round pick advantage. In the 5th, he took Wes Welker (which sounded great to me at the time, but with the most recent reports of Welker’s early return, maybe not so great for me) and in the 6th, Reggie Bush and Kevin Kolb. Out of the 5 picks taken after the 2nd round, only Welker was taken at around redraft ADP, while the others were more in line with dynasty ADP. In the 7th round, the team just missed out on Winslow and took John Carslon instead, another plus for the pick’s value. Once again, a very nice dynasty team being built here but that is exactly what you hope for as a pick owner. With a number of other teams going redraft style (including my own team now that I took Brady and Gonzo), this team will be at a disadvantage in the race to make the playoffs unless a change in drafting style occurs very quickly (and really, such a change would probably not be in the best interest of this team anyway).

Picks in the 5th and 6th rounds that stood out were the following:

Vincent Jackson (5.1 – really thought he would drop further this time with the holdout situation not getting any better although a fantastic value for the 2011 season and if I had the 5.1 myself, I don’t think I would’ve been able to pass him up either)

Cedric Benson (5.6 – thought he would drop further as well as an overreaction to the recent news, but he got picked where he probably should have been – nice pick actually)

Reggie Bush (6.1 – not a fan of this pick at all, too early for Bush imo, the first questionable pick made by this owner – loved the first 4 in particular from a fantasy football dynasty perspective (Calvin, Crabtree, Best, Felix – nice!!!). Zach Miller would have been the better choice by far and would have solved the TE issue this team would soon run into for 2010.

Chris Cooley (6.12 – makes a surprise appearance in the 6th round, a few picks earlier than I planned - I am now REALLY glad I traded up to get Gonzo instead of waiting until 7.02 to land what I thought would be Cooley).

Mike Wallace (6.02 – Too early for me. I may be selling Wallace short since he is getting a ton of hype in dynasty circles as the next coming, but I am just not a big fan. What makes Wallace any better a prospect than Robert Meachem who got picked at the end of the 7th round (about right for Meachem, maybe even a little early?)).

Wes Welker (5.09 – What I thought might be a terrible pick may turn out to be a great one depending on whether he can make a full recovery in 2010).
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