FFPC $750 Dynasty League / Rounds 1 and 2:
Jul 22, 2010 01:28 AM
Given the extreme strategy I used in the $1250 league, I planned on mixing it up here and go with a strategy that could win now but without sacrificing the future. Ideally, I would continue to target young players that were ready to produce in 2010 while also acquiring a few additional 2011 first rounders. What would help a ton in my overall goal would be to land one of the top 7 picks. In particular, getting one of the top 4 RBs or Andre Johnson is ideal in this strategy. With one of those players, you could comfortably go for the win in 2010, have a leg up in doing so (due to their great production) and have the advantage of not really sacrificing the future (since all 5 are fairly long-term type players). Contrast this with having a back end pick, lets say pick #10. In order to stay on par with the top 5 picks, the #10 owner would need to take Frank Gore, and I am NOT a big Gore fan for dynasty (although I think he is top 5 in redraft). At pick #2, again in order to keep up with the top 5 slots, you might have to take a Dallas Clark in this format or perhaps Reggie Wayne. Again, superb redraft choices but not attractive second round options for the long term.
Getting the #9 Slot
When I received the #9 slot, I was definitely bummed having already received the #12 in the $1250 league. Unlike some others, I am a firm believer that having a top slot in dynasty is a HUGE advantage (much more so than in redraft). While you can build excellent teams from any slot, as mentioned above, the top slots make it so much easier and allow you to stay young and win now at the same time. I would much rather have Chris Johnson and Sidney Rice than lets say Frank Gore and Steven Jackson. Johnson and Rice will produce comparably to Gore and Jackson but should have a lot more staying power. At a $750 entry, going Gore/Jackson would be a big risk in dynasty (as it could require an early rebuild) while going Johnson/Rice would carry a lot less long term risk.
The interesting thing about the #9 slot is that in the $1250, that would have been good enough to get Calvin Johnson whom I love for dynasty. Of course, if the draft goes according to what I think “should” be form, Calvin would go at the 1.07 and I would be left choosing between Brandon Marshall, Aaron Rodgers and a few others (all of whom are a tier below the top 7).
First thing I tried to do is to move up 2 spots to the 1.7 without giving up the farm. Unfortunately, it turns out it would have cost the farm to do it, so I had to stay put.
I then explored some possibilities of obtaining a 2011 1st rounder at a small price similar to what I did in the $1250 Dynasty League. With the 1.09, it was more difficult to get myself to move down into the mid 2nd for a 2011 first rounder (and this option was in fact available) as I felt like it would be giving too much (whereas at the 1.12 in the $1250, I had no issues at all moving back into the mid to late 2nd round – a psychological thing I guess. As for the 2.04, I had limited options to move back into the second round for a 2011 1st since the pick was a little too late for that as compared to the 2.01 that I had in the $1250. As I learned from the $1250, the teams starting at the 1.01-1.05 aren’t the best candidates anyway from whom to acquire 2011 1sts given their built in production advantage over the rest of the field (other than the Gore owner) assuming they took one of the top 4 RBs or Andre Johnson.
I also looked to acquire a 2011 1st or two with late-ish picks (starting with the 9th round), and that was not working out either. So, at least at the start, I was grounded. A much slower start than in the $1250 for sure, but I figured the asking price on 2011 1sts would come down as we got into the draft.
Once the 1.04 was on the clock, I got a surprising offer on the table. My 3rd/4th/7th for the 1.04 and a 2011 1st. Wow, certainly tempting and a trade like that would cover the following two goals: (1) With MJD, I could go for the win in 2010 without going the “old” route; and (2) I would have acquired a 2011 1st rounder from a team without one of the top 5 picks (and in this case, without a pick until the 2.09 – very enticing). Sure, the extra picks could result in an even stronger team due to depth, but only if that team were to go all out with older-type players. I also had to consider whether I could achieve goal (1) above with only 4 picks in the first seven rounds. By the time I figured out that I could (10 minutes or so), the other owner had already revoked the trade (bummer). A revised offer came through of 3/4/6 for the 1.04 and a 2011 first and that was a little too much for me (as the $1250 showed that very good players would still be around in the 6th). After some countering, I had on the table a new offer altogether of 1.04/3.04/9.04 and a 2011 1st for the 1.09/3.09/4.04. Now, goal (2) was in jeopardy since the other team would still have a 1st rounder and still have an extra 4th making the team potentially very strong. However, comparing this new deal to the old 3/4/7 that I was already ready to accept, I found that this deal was of comparable value (or at least I thought I liked it at the time). With the pressure of competing with another owner for the 1.04 which already had a deal in principle worked out, I took the deal quickly. My end analysis was that assuming I would not be able to draft Calvin Johnson from the 1.09, I would prefer having MJD and the 2011 1st despite giving up the extra 4th rounder. I also determined (perhaps incorrectly) that a team drafting in the 1.09 hole, even with the extra 4th, would not be able to draft, on average, as good a redraft team as a top 5 slot owner UNLESS the owner takes Frank Gore or goes all out without regard to the future (e.g., Dallas Clark in the 2nd). Also, perhaps foolishly, I believed that if the other owner really wanted to win now, he simply would have drafted MJD rather than trade down so I assumed (again foolishly) that this owner was a “dynasty” minded owner. I also told myself that even if Calvin were to fall to the 1.09, I still would have made the right decision since I could not reasonably expect Calvin to fall that far, and the decision to take the deal was the best decision based on the information I had at the time (i.e., process over result).
The Draft - Rounds 1 and 2
Of course, Calvin did end up making it to the 1.09 and all that crap I told myself about making the right determination at the time was now out the window, and I was FUMING. Now, all that mattered was that I was down a 4th rounder and that I had to find a way to get back to par. My only consolation: at least the other owner did not start with Frank Gore because that would’ve been a strong sign that he would be drafting a redraft-type squad which would kill the value of the 2011 1st I acquired. From that perspective, I would much rather the other team start with Calvin over Gore. So, at least there was a silver lining, as thin as it was.
Now down an unnecessary 4th rounder (at least in my mind), I started getting crazy thoughts in my head starting with what to do at 2.04. At the 2.04, I very seriously considered taking Dallas Clark, Reggie Wayne or Steven Jackson over my regular pick in every other dynasty league, Greg Jennings (whom I have taken as high as the 1.09 in other startups). What should have been an easy call became a difficult one. All of Clark, Wayne and likely SJax were better 2010 options than Jennings (Clark and Wayne in particular are my usual redraft choices in the FFPC format), and I wanted to maintain the advantage over the rest of the field that I already had with MJD on the roster. After struggling with the options, I came to my senses and drafted Jennings anyway. Jennings provides strong 2010 production without the age or wear and tear risk, something that could not be said of any of Clark, Wayne and SJax. I could only hope now that the other owner (whose 2011 1st I owned) would not take Clark, Wayne or SJax either.
First two rounds went as follows:
1.1 Chris Johnson
1.2 Adrian Peterson
1.3 Ray Rice
1.4 Maurice Jones Drew
1.5 Andre Johnson
1.6 Frank Gore
1.7 Larry Fitzgerald
1.8 Aaron Rodgers
1.9 Calvin Johnson
1.10 Jermichael Finley
1.11 Deangelo Williams
1.12 Brandon Marshall
2.1 Miles Austin
2.2 Roddy White
2.3 Ryan Mathews
2.4 Greg Jennings
2.5 Jamal Charles
2.6 Drew Brees
2.7 Desean Jackson
2.8 Shonn Greene
2.9 Michael Crabtree
2.10 Lesean McCoy
2.11 Reggie Wayne
2.12 Dallas Clark
Needless to say, I was very happy that the other owner did not take Wayne, Clark or SJax, but instead took Crabtree. Although the best available dynasty pick imo, Crabtree was not the best redraft choice – not by a longshot. The Calvin and Crabtree combo was music to my ears as this was a start of an owner looking to build a true dynasty team rather than a redraft one. Again, about as good as dynasty start you can have, but for my purposes, all I cared about is how his team would stack up in 2010. Calvin/Crabtree was about the best I could hope for (outside of an extreme Aaron Rodgers/Dez Bryant combo). Still, I would have to wait out that extra 4th rounder before I could see the total damage.
Looking at the first two rounds, it was pretty clear that the teams with CJ3/Clark and ADP/Wayne were not to be messed with in terms of acquiring their picks. They would almost certainly be playoff bound teams (likely bye teams even). They already took one step to the dark side (by taking Clark and Wayne) and would almost certainly continue to draft redraft style from then on to keep piling on their sizeable advantage.
My start of MJD/Jennings was a nice start giving me a 2010 advantage over most teams outside of the CJ3/Clark and ADP/Wayne teams, but this advantage would be difficult to maintain without that 4th rounder.