What is the value of a future 1st in 12-team startup draft? How much should you pay if you want one, and how much should you get in return if you decide to sell?

In the 2014 DFWC May startup leagues, the following trades for 1st rounders have been made thus far. With all of the various combinations making comparisons difficult, I have attempted to distill the value attributed to the 1st rounder(s) alone (using an unscientific eyeball approach). Given that a quarter of the trades below involved my own team, the results may be somewhat skewed to how I personally view 1sts. Still, I think this information will be useful for this year’s startups and for others down the road (including the next waive of DFWC startups in the summer!). No one wants to be the owner that draws the ire of his or her league (or in the DFWC’s case, that of 18+ leagues) for paying too much or selling for too little.


Team A gave 6.11
Team B gave 2015 1st
Value of 1st: Late 6th

Team A gave 7.02, 13.02, 14.11 and 15.02
Team B gave 8.12 and 2015 1st
Value of 1st: Late 8th

Team A gave 2.11
Team B gave 10.01, and two 2015 1sts
Value of 1st: Mid 6th

Team A gave 1.03, 2.10, 7.03
Team B gave 1.11, 2.02 and 2015 1st
Value of 1st: Late 6th

Team A gave 6.03
Team B gave 15.07 and 2015 1st
Value of 1st: Mid 6th

Team A gave 3.12
Team B gave 6.05 and 2015 1st
Value of 1st: Late 7th

Team A gave 1.02
Team B gave 6.08, 8.04, 8.08, 9.05, 10.08, 11.05 and 2015 1st
Value of 1st: Mid 5th

Team A gave 3.02
Team B gave 13.03 and three 2015 1sts
Value of 1st: Late 7th

Team A gave 4.07, 9.02 and 10.04
Team B gave 10.10 and two 2015 1sts
Value of 1st: Mid 6th

Team A gave 5.02
Team B gave 2015 1st and 2nd
Value of 1st: Mid to late 5th

Team A gave 7.07 and 11.06
Team B gave 2015 1st
Value of 1st: High 6th

Team A gave 7.05 and 14.10
Team B gave 16.06 and 2015 1st
Value of 1st: Mid 7th

Team A gave 2.11 and 9.11
Team B gave 6.08, 7.05 and 2015 1st
Value of 1st: Late 6th

Team A gave 5.03 and 15.03
Team B gave 9.11,17.11 and 2015 1st and 4th
Value of 1st: Mid to late 6th

Team A gave 7.06
Team B gave 2015 1st
Value of 1st: Mid 7th

Team A gave 1.03, 6.10, 7.03 and 11.03
Team B gave 2.11, 4.11, 12.11, 16.11 and two 2015 1sts
Value of 1st: Mid to late 6th

Team A gave 5.02
Team B gave 2015 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th
Value of 1st: Mid to late 5th

Team A gave 3.05
Team B gave 2015 1st, 2nd and 3rd
Value of 1st: High 3rd

Team A gave 6.06
Team B gave 16.09 and 2015 1st
Value of 1st: Mid to late 6th

Team A gave 2.09 and 8.09
Team B gave 3.11, 7.11 and 2015 1st
Value of 1st: Early 9th

Team A gave 5.01
Team B gave 2015 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th
Value of 1st: Mid 5th

Team A gave 3.05 and 10.08
Team B gave 5.01 and 2015 1st
Value of 1st: Early 7th

Team A gave 3.09
Team B gave 6.06 and 2015 1st
Value of 1st: Mid to late 7th

Team A gave 2.08
Team B gave 3.09 and 2015 1st
Value of 1st: Mid 8th


Based on the above, it seems that a late 6th rounder for a random 1st is about average in the DFWC. 7th round value is fairly common as well and is in the range of what is “market”. Once you get into the 8th and 9th round equivalents, you’re probably selling too low (or, if you’re buying, you’re getting a great price).

Unless you have reason to believe that a pick is going to be in the top 3 or 4, paying a 5th rounder or more is too much. Paying a 3rd or a 4th is FAR too much for a random 1st. Keep in mind that when you buy a 1st rounder from a team, that team is strengthened by the pick you give them and are incentivized to take a “win now” approach. So right off the bat, the odds are tilted in favor of that pick not being a very valuable one in a year.

Now give that team an extra 3rd or 4th rounder (or even a 5th) and you tilt those odds even further. You are giving that team a huge advantage over the rest of the field! As a result, the likelihood that you will break even on that purchase (much less make a profit) will be awfully low. Don’t do it.

On the flip side, by selling at an 8th or 9th round equivalent, how much of an advantage this year are you really getting by selling your 1st? Not much imo.

These are not hard and fast rules by any means. Under certain circumstances, paying a 5th, 4th or maybe even a 3rd round value for a first could make sense (although tough to envision a strong justification for paying a 3rd). For example, I sold my own 2015 1st through 6th round picks for the 5.02 (great deal!). A few days later, I bought my 2015 1st and another team’s future 2nd for the 5.02 (for an overall loss). And yet, the buy back made all the sense in the world given the change in direction that I decided to take, and it freed me up to go on a 1st round shopping spree!

Still, while these guidelines are not set in stone, be wary of going astray of them or you may be kicking yourself later for a poor trade.