My teams went into the final 2 weeks with a lot of promise and the potential for a gigantic payday. I expected 3-5 titles (but was hoping for more).

Unfortunately, most of my teams went into the tank after Week 15. With so many of my teams relying on Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones and AJ Green, as great as they are, the downside is when it goes bad, it goes bad for my teams as a whole. Suffice it to say, none of those three pulled their weight when it counted most, and after Week 15, all but a few of my teams were out of the running for first place. This makes a good case for diversifying when you have multiple teams, but that’s a subject for another time.

The poor Week 15 performances resulted in a very restless week leading up to Week 16 while I waited to see if my last few remaining chances would bring home a title. I am really not a fan of Thursday night games (or Saturday games) when it comes to fantasy football. It prolongs the pain I go through each week, which is especially excruciating in Week 16. To help alleviate the pain, I instituted a moratorium in my household on all football related activities, which included, to the dismay of my older sons, watching any of the Thursday or Saturday games or even checking out the final box scores. The moratorium continued through Sunday night, at which point I just had to look.

When it was all over, I came out of 2014 with only two titles, one in the DFWC and the other in the FFPC. I am disappointed about the final wins total (considering the number of teams I had in the final 4), but any bitterness was offset by the fact that one of those two titles came in the $2500 FFPC Dynasty League #2, my highest stakes league for a prize of $13,000!

Despite the championship losses, 2014 was still a decent year. I ended up with 2nd place finishes in $750 Dynasty League #2, $750 Dynasty League #4, $750 Dynasty League #7 and $750 Dynasty League #10 and a 4th place finish in $750 Dynasty League #3, which should put me comfortably ahead at #1 in the FFPC for total lifetime cashes in Dynasty. Those finishes brought my annual total for 2014 to over $20,000 gross ($12,500 net of entry fees) in the FFPC alone.

In the DFWC, I came away with a 1st, 2nd and 3rd place finish in my three non-startup teams. Considering the firepower I had on those teams, that is not all that good, but at least my team in DFWC League #5 is going into 2015 as the favorite to win the 2016 Dynasty King prize. I’d love to win the overall championship one of these years, but my main goal has been winning the Dynasty King award in 2016 and each year thereafter (for an extra $2,000 per year in addition to league earnings). Since the Dynasty King award is a running total of the last three years, winning the title year after year is a distinct possibility, and that is my goal.

Anyway, that’s it for now. Merry Christmas everyone!

Playoff Week 1 Update: I play in 17 dynasty leagues, 3 of them startups. Out of the remaining 14, I made the playoffs in 13, so there is the potential for a big year this year with a little luck.

FFPC: Starting with my highest stakes leagues, I play in 7 FFPC leagues. Unfortunately, the one non-startup team that didn’t make the playoffs was one of these high stakes teams. However, that still leaves 6 that made it in. Two teams received week 14 byes ($750 FFPC Dynasty League #2 and $750 FFPC Dynasty League #3), while the remaining four had to battle it out with 3 other teams for the right of 2 of the 4 teams to make it into the final 4 for a two-week championship playoff.

One of those teams is Piano Man in $750 FFPC Dynasty League #10. This is the team where I traded two first round picks (one of which could be no worse than the 1.4) for Peyton Manning and Jamaal Charles. This team now has a top player at each starting position with Manning, Charles, CJ Anderson, Calvin, Julio, Alshon, Cobb and Graham. With that lineup, this team has a decent shot at winning the title but it first had to make it past Week 14. It doesn’t help when your star QB puts up 6 points and your super stud TE puts up 7, but the rest of the gang pulled their weight for a cool 189 and a Final 4 berth. In the Championship, If Julio is out, my replacement would be Dwayne Bowe....OUCH!

Another powerhouse team looking to make it into the final four is possibly my best Dynasty team out of all of my teams in any competition, the team in $750 FFPC Dynasty League #4. This team has Russell Wilson and Matt Ryan at QB, CJ Anderson and a crew of mediocre options at RB led by Denard Robinson and Rashad Jennings, a stud WR core of Calvin, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas and Alshon Jeffery (and Patterson in development) and TE stud Rob Gronkowski. Unfortunately, for the second year in a row, this team did not get one of the 2 byes despite again being in the top 2 during the regular season in total points (last year was #1). Last year, the team unceremoniously got knocked out in Week 14. This year, in Week 14, the team scored 241 points! That’s after sitting Alshon Jeffery’s 21 points for Demaryius’ 3. The Julio injury will hurt of course, but at least Alshon Jeffery and his elite projected numbers can finally crack the lineup. Of course, a gimpy Demaryius Thomas to go with Julio being out could spell doom for this team's chances against the toughest final 4 out of all my FFPC leagues.

The stakes are at their highest in the $2500 FFPC Dynasty League #2. In this league, my young team was possibly the hottest team in the league going into the playoffs but due to a slow start to the season, the team did not secure a Week 14 bye (just missed it). This team has Big Ben, CJ Anderson, Justin Forsett, Gio Bernard, Doug Martin, Bishop Sankey, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr, Deandre Hopkins, Jeremy Maclin and Jordan Reed (along with 3 1sts next year). I could really use Julio in the Championship rounds, but for now, this team and its 199 points in Week 14 easily advanced into the final 4.

Last but not least (well, possibly least) is my team in $750 FFPC Dynasty League #7. Like most of my teams, this one has a crazy good set of WRs in AJ Green, Julio Jones, Alshon Jeffery and Mike Evans along with more than capable back ups of Vincent Jackson, Brandon LaFell and Roddy White. At RB, this team has CJ Anderson, Gio Bernard and Christine Michael. TE is weak with Jared Cook who now may have a concussion, so I’ll have to dig up a waiver wire TE. Russell Wilson is at QB. This team scored 225 points in Week 14 and is Final 4 bound.

To recap, that leaves me with 6 teams in the FFPC in the Final 4 and a decent shot at winning a league, two or three.

DFWC:

It has been a bittersweet last few weeks and season in the DFWC. On the sweet side, my team in League #5 took down #1 overall in the regular season, and my team in League #8 finished 7 overall. My team in League #1, which I thought would be my best team in 2014, finished 15th overall. 3 out of 3 second-year teams finishing in the top 20 out of 288. Pretty good. These overall finishes will help one of these teams (probably the team in League 5) win the Dynasty King $2,000 prize in 2016 - my main goal in this competition from day 1.

But going into week 14, my focus was on the overall championship for 2014 and the $7,500 prize, and that’s where the bitter comes in. Unlike my FFPC teams, my DFWC teams flopped at the worst possible time. In fact, they were outscored by most of my FFPC teams despite an extra position player in the lineup.

First in League #5: An issue with having 6 top flight WRs (Calvin, Dez, Julio, Gordon, Jeffery, Brown) is that I will inevitably choose the wrong WR to sit at the worst possible time - its just what I do. That was the case this week when I opted to start Josh Gordon over Alshon Jeffery. To be fair, Alshon was “reportedly” coming off of an injury. I was concerned that he would pull a Calvin and serve as a decoy for Marshall against Dallas. Gordon had issues of his own, but Cleveland was starving for pass catchers and Gordon was the most targeted receiver in the NFL over the last two weeks. It may have been the percentage play call at the time, but regardless, the call cost me 18 points that I could not afford. My team in League 5 ended up with an average week (which took Julio’s heroics to even get there) while many of the other top teams put up 200+ points. I’ve got a tough road ahead to climb back into contention, but you never know in a 3-week playoff and a team that could put up 230+ points in any given week. Julio’s injury of course does not help. For now, I’m just hoping I can secure the league championship and the additional $1,500 prize with it (on top of the $500 that the team has already secured by its regular season performance).

My teams in Leagues 1 and 8 were even worse, thanks to dud performances from Demaryius Thomas, Jimmy Graham and Denard Robinson. Those teams are likely out of the running for their league championship as a result and are near the bottom in the overall playoffs. Very bitter.

Other Leagues:
Starting with Legends of Dynasty ($200), my first Dynasty league ever and where my team is looking to win its fourth title in a row, my team received a bye in Week 14 and is in the final 4. The Brandon Marshall injury makes things tough, but Brandon LaFell is an adequate fill in.

I was getting hammered in Badlands ($250) in the wild card round until Monday night and you guessed it, Julio Jones. This team advances, but is not likely to win it all if Julio misses games.

In The Dynasty League ($500), with the 6-team 3-week playoff format, my team is mathematically still in the race but after a poor Week 14, it will take a miracle to win it all. My team in that league is a perennial 3rd or 4th place type of team and just doesn’t have the health or firepower to make it any higher.

In Monster League ($250), my team received a bye and is in the final 4. If I recall correctly, this team has received a bye every year since this league’s inception, which makes 5 years in a row. I don’t draft startups this way often, but I drafted this team to win now and win later, and I’ve been fortunate that it has worked out that way. Thanks to that bye, I was able to survive Peyton Manning’s, Demaryius Thomas’ and Josh Gordon’s combined 12!

Final Score Card:

Going into Week 15, I now have 10 teams left with a legitimate chance to win a league title (a number of which are the favorites to do so, possibly even with the Julio injury) and 3 others that are shooting for 2nd or 3rd for a little extra dough. The ten chances gives me hope that I can bring home the title in 3-5 leagues which would be a pretty good year. A lot will depend on which 3-5 in determining just how good.

Good luck in Weeks 15 and 16 to everyone reading this! Feel free to chime in with your success (or heartbreak) stories!

Week 10 is here and my teams are fairly well positioned to make playoff runs. While it won’t likely end up this way come Week 14, 12 out of my 13 non-startup teams would be in the playoffs if the season ended today. The other 3 startup teams by design will not make it this year.

Unfortunately, none of the teams are looking particularly dominant from a redraft perspective. I think at least a few will end up winning their leagues (just by the numbers alone), but which ones will not be obvious. A number of them look awesome for dynasty, but for this year, there are other teams in those leagues that look just as good with flashes in the pan types like Emmanuel Sanders and Brandon Lafell and oldies but goodies like Peyton Manning, Marshawn Lynch, Matt Forte and the like. Teams with those players are matching up well with my typical Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas lineups this year. It will be interesting how it all shakes out.

Last Minute Trades:

With the deadline in the FFPC now here and the DFWC deadline approaching, contenders are doing what they can to improve their playoff lineups via trade. I made a few myself in the FFPC $750 League #10 that I usually would not make.

This team is positioned nicely for the playoffs with Calvin Johnson, Alshon Jeffery, Julio Jones and Randall Cobb at WR and Jimmy Graham at TE (1.5 PPR TE), but the team was weak at QB (Eli Manning) and even weaker at RB (Ahmad Bradshaw and Chris Johnson). With Calvin being out for so long and with Graham having his own injury woes as well, this team fell out of the running for the Week 14 bye weeks ago, so it will need some luck in Week 13 to get into the final 4 for the 2-week total points playoff. I felt like the team needed a little more firepower to make a title run.

Accordingly, I traded away what will be a top 4 pick in 2015 (in the FFPC, it could be anywhere from the 1.1 to the 1.4 depending on the results of the draft pick consolation round playoffs) plus Roddy White for Jamaal Charles. With a backfield of Bradshaw and Charles, I am feeling a little more comfortable about this team’s chances, but there was still that weakness at QB.

To shore that up, I traded my last remaining 1st rounder (my own which could be anywhere from 1.7 to 1.12) along with Eli Manning for Peyton Manning! As far as dynasty value, its not a good trade. Peyton may not even play after this year for all we know. But Peyton Manning is one of the few QBs this year (along with Andrew Luck and one or two others) that are true difference makers at a not so difference making position. This team was very well set up for the future with those two 1sts and already a pretty good playoff team this year even without Charles and Manning, but I thought I’d try something new and actually “go for broke” in a league. Besides, although the 1st used to obtain Manning will be a total loss as soon as next year, with a little luck, it is quite possible that I’ll be able to trade Charles next year for an early 1st for a wash.

My 2013 startup DFWC teams have had a promising start to 2014. After 5 weeks in the books, the team I’ve previously dubbed as having the “potential” to be the best dynasty team ever (my DFWC League 5 Team) is sitting at #1 overall. My team in DFWC League 8 is sitting nicely in 7th overall. Finally, my team in DFWC League 1 is at #10 overall. Three teams in the Top 10 out of 288 teams feels pretty good.

Still, its early in the season, and the overall standings are sure to fluctuate week to week. Besides, these overall point totals won’t really come into play until the end of Year 3 (for my DFWC League 8 team) and Years 4 and beyond for the other two, when the 3-year Dynasty King titles (and $2,000 per year) start getting awarded.

Here’s a status check on each of these teams, all of which are very good. Read More...

At least as far as the DFWC goes, despite the loss of Josh Gordon in 2014, I am comfortable saying that I have put together the two strongest dynasty teams in the competition (out of 144 teams going up to 218 teams). Here they are:

League #1

Philip Rivers, Jay Cutler, Ben Roethlisberger
Trent Richardson, Shane Vereen, Alfred Morris, Mark Ingram
AJ Green, Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas, Alshon Jeffery, Josh Gordon, Cordarrelle Patterson
Jimmy Graham


League #5

Ryan Tannehill
Christine Michael, Bishop Sankey
Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, Dez Bryant, Josh Gordon, Percy Harvin, Antonio Brown, Cordarrelle Patterson, Sammy Watkins and Mike Evans
Jimmy Graham
Read More...

A lot has happened since my last update.

First off, I acquired Antonio Brown for the 1.6, Ladarius Green and Markus Wheaton.

Then, tragedy struck with Josh Gordon, whom I had acquired for both of my powerhouse teams in the DFWC. Its only one guy, but losing Gordon changes the whole look and feel of both teams and really dampers their outlook. Read More...

What is the value of a future 1st in 12-team startup draft? How much should you pay if you want one, and how much should you get in return if you decide to sell?

In the 2014 DFWC May startup leagues, the following trades for 1st rounders have been made thus far. With all of the various combinations making comparisons difficult, I have attempted to distill the value attributed to the 1st rounder(s) alone (using an unscientific eyeball approach). Given that a quarter of the trades below involved my own team, the results may be somewhat skewed to how I personally view 1sts. Still, I think this information will be useful for this year’s startups and for others down the road (including the next waive of DFWC startups in the summer!). No one wants to be the owner that draws the ire of his or her league (or in the DFWC’s case, that of 18+ leagues) for paying too much or selling for too little.
Read More...

With my League #1 team now looking very good, the question now is, what I am I going to do with my team in League #5, the team that had the 11 1sts, the team that could become the best team ever. On its current path, it could look very similar to this one.

I recently acquired Doug Martin for Donald Brown (pre-SD signing), the 1.7, 1.12 and the 2.04. I then flipped Doug Martin along with the 1.11 for Josh Gordon.

After those trades, the team looks like this:
Read More...

I wasn’t a huge fan of this team at first, but I’m really starting to like it now. After acquiring Josh Gordon and Jimmy Graham, I made the following trades:

I gave: 1.01, Michael Floyd and a 2015 4th rounder
I got: Calvin Johnson

I gave: Calvin Johnson, Randall Cobb and Tyler Eifert
I got: AJ Green and Demaryius Thomas

My team now:
Philip Rivers
Jay Cutler
Ben Roethlisberger

Shane Vereen
Trent Richardson
Mark Ingram

AJ Green
Julio Jones
Demaryius Thomas
Josh Gordon
Alshon Jeffery
Cordarrelle Patterson

Jimmy Graham

In this format, being able to start 5 of these elite WRs rather than just 4 is going to make a big difference. I now think that this team is the favorite to be the highest scoring team in 2014 in the DFWC and quite possibly the highest scoring team for the next 3 years (to win the 2016 Dynasty King award).

Trading opened a few weeks ago and I took it slow at first, but I just made two giant trades this afternoon for my team in League #1. This is the team that began 2013 with 7 future 1st rounders. It’s a great team, but it is likely to be outdone at every turn by my other team in League #5 (which could ultimately turn out to be the best dynasty team ever, we’ll see).

Going into the offseason, the team only had the 1.1, 1.2, 1.3 and 1.10 left (having burned 3 1st rounders in a disastrous mid-season Trent Richardson trade).

Last week, I used the 1.10 and Zach Ertz to land Shane Vereen. I also traded a 2015 2nd rounder for Marques Colston for additional WR depth (you can never have enough in a format that allows you to start 5 WR).

Then came the big trades:

Trade 1: I gave 1.2, 1.3, Ladarius Green and a 2015 3rd rounder for Jimmy Graham.

Ten seconds later, I clicked accept to the following:

Trade 2: I gave Gio Bernard, Justin Blackmon and Marques Colston for Josh Gordon.

Both trades I think were slightly excessive, even for superstars like Graham and Gordon, but I was intrigued at what both trades together did for my team. I am not certain if I would have accepted one without the other, and I probably would have ended up agonizing over each one had I not had both at my disposal.

The Gordon trade in particular is interesting since it highlights my belief that in the DFWC format, WR is king. In most formats, I rate Gio Bernard very close to Gordon. Adding anything substantial to Gio (much less Justin Blackmon, whom I like a lot) would be difficult. But here, in the DFWC, I added Justin Blackmon and a very capable starter in Marques Colston.

In any case, I am glad to have them on board. Here is the team now with the two monster additions: QB: Philip Rivers, Jay Cutler and Ben Roethlisberger

RB: Shane Vereen, Trent Richardson and Mark Ingram.

WR: Julio Jones, Josh Gordon, Alshon Jeffery, Randall Cobb, Michael Floyd, Cordarrelle Patterson and Sammy Watkins (1.1).

TE: Jimmy Graham and Tyler Eifert

RB is a little thin without Gio, but I can address that on the wire or by trade. Graham and the WRs, however, make this team a top 5 team in the DFWC in 2014 imo.

The DFWC is expanding to 18 leagues total (216 teams) with the overall prizes increasing by 41%. The grand prize is now up to $7,500! That’s in addition to another potential $2,000 in league prizes PLUS the potential annual $2,000 for Dynasty King. That’s $11,500 as a maximum prize each year for a $299 investment. Good times!

2014 will be my year in the DFWC. I’ve got three teams that are legitimate threats to take down the overall grand prize, two of which may be the top 2 overall preseason favorites (out of the 144, soon to be 216, teams).

Let the games begin!

If you want jump into the competition (something I would highly recommend), here is the link:

http://www.fftoolbox.com/ffwc/dynasty.cfm

I’m entering a new team myself. New team, new strategy?

I made a huge trade today in DFWC League #5.

I gave Doug Martin and Tavon Austin
I received Dez Bryant

I made the offer this morning and it was promptly accepted. I toyed with the idea of offering Doug Martin and a late 1st for Dez instead with the thought of working my way up to Tavon Austin if I had to, but I decided not to fool around with this one and went with the offer I thought had a good chance of being accepted right off the bat.

I always worry about giving up too much value in a 2 for 1 (which has backfired on me all too many times), particularly where one of the two is also an elite player (Doug Martin), but I really had to have Dez for the nucleus that I want for this particular team. I might not have made a trade like this for one of my other DFWC teams with fewer resources (and lower aspirations). Overall, I think this is one of those win-win trades for both teams.

A few weeks prior to Justin Blackmon's most recent suspension, I traded him straight up for Doug Martin (post-injury of course). Blackmon without the off-field problems is a top 7 WR. In the DFWC format where WRs are kings (because they score more points than RBs and TEs in PPR, the elite ones last longer than RB and you can start up to 5 of them), Doug Martin was an appropriate price for Blackmon (particularly for a team looking to win now). Of course, there were obvious risks to holding Blackmon (as there is holding a player like Josh Gordon), and this time, the risk blew up on Blackmon owners (of which I continue to be one in other leagues). It seems for now, at least in this league, that I dodged a bullet. You know the saying, "Better to be lucky than good".

Also in the last few weeks, I was able to add Jermaine Gresham ($88) and Markus Wheaton ($315) off the waiver wire.

My team (still under construction) is now:

Ryan Tannehill/Eli Manning

Doug Martin

Calvin Johnson
Julio Jones
Percy Harvin
Cordarrelle Patterson
Tavon Austin
Markus Wheaton

Jermaine Gresham
Ladarius Green
Vance McDonald

1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 1.4, 1.5, 1.6, 1.7, 1.10, 1.11, 1.12

Earlier today, I made a pair of the biggest trades that I recall making for one team in one day. I made it in the DFWC for “the team with the 11 1sts”.

Despite the meager beginnings (only 5 players drafted during the maiden draft), I’ve had and continue to have designs on making this team the greatest team I have ever constructed and quite possibly the best dynasty team EVER. Lofty goals, but one can dream.

First, the highlights since my last entry on this team back in August:

(1) Before the season started, I traded Cam Newton to a potential contender for Percy Harvin (on IR) and Keenan Allen (pre-breakout).

(2) Free agent waiver wire has been slim thus far, but I did strike gold with Julius Thomas over the summer and silver with Philip Rivers.

(3) Philip Rivers and a 3rd rounder turned into Reuben Randle by trade.

(4) The twelfth 1st rounder, the one I don’t have, got off to a fast start and is the 2nd highest scoring team thus far – so all good on that front.

The transformation from skeleton crew to “best team ever” will take time, and I really wasn’t planning on making anything big happen until the offseason, particularly anything involving first rounders. When it comes to firsts, I am better off waiting until the offseason when the value of the firsts skyrocket. For those looking for future firsts, this time of year is usually the best time to shop. That said, you don’t get the opportunity to bring on elite players everyday, so when the opportunity arises, you do what you have to do.

Following the Julio news last week, I began to put out feelers in the few leagues in which I didn’t already own him. I acquired him in the $1250 FFPC Dynasty league (Demaryius for Julio and a 1st) and in another DFWC Dynasty League, the “one with the 6 1sts” (AJ Green and Demaryius Thomas for Julio Jones, Randall Cobb and what is currently the 1.2). Here, I made an offer of Julius Thomas and Reuben Randle for Julio Jones – offer rejected.

Last night, a week after my initial offer, I received an inquiry regarding my prior offer and what I might be willing to add and what it might take to get a deal done. I always appreciate the open lines of communication with leaguemates. In this case, the detail provided was great. It makes trades so much easier to get done, trades that make sense for both teams. So I made an offer, and the offer was accepted this morning. Julius Thomas, Reuben Randle and what will likely be a mid 1st rounder for Julio Jones. Julio will be the cornerstone for my team and is just what the team needed.

With the juices flowing from the trade, I immediately scanned rosters for the possibility of adding another cornerstone and made two offers, one for AJ Green and another for Calvin Johnson. The bait, Rob Gronkowski (a day away from his return) and Keenan Allen (the latest dynasty rock star). Late this evening, Calvin Johnson was mine. Gronk and Allen may be a bit much for any one player, but Calvin is one of those guys for whom you have to overpay to have a shot.

Now would be a good time for a self-imposed breather before I get too carried away and overspend unnecessarily. I’ll focus on a few necessary tweaks in the meantime.

The team, post-trades:

QB: Ryan Tannehill, Eli Manning
RB: No one of note, plan is to draft rookie studs
WR: Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, Percy Harvin, Justin Blackmon, Cordarrelle Patterson, Tavon Austin
TE: Ladarius Green, Vance McDonald

Future picks: 1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 1.4, 1.5, 1.6, 1.8, 1.9, 1.10, 1.12, 2.5

The transformation has begun, but it will take time.

So how do you get to eleven 1sts in a startup?

For one, you have to be proactive and trade early and often. If some other team gets an early jump collecting firsts, you probably aren’t going to end up with more than a few extra firsts. I tend to overpay a bit on the first few firsts in order to get the momentum going and to discourage others that may have had the same idea of collecting firsts (it is now more common than it once was). Overpaying, of course, has its downside (big ones) so I don’t recommend doing that often.

Here are the trades I made to get to eleven in the DFWC.

PRE-DRAFT TRADES

Trade 1
I gave: 2.12
I received: 4.05 and a First
Comment: One of my favorite combos year after year. The guys I REALLY like usually dry up a little before the end of the 2nd round, so the drop to the 4.05 is usually not all that big for me.

Trade 2
I gave: 7.01
I received: First
Comment: Slight overpay. You can often draft a mid-1st 2013 round rookie at 7.01, so the question is whether you would pay a current mid-1st for a random future 1st. I’d rather have the current mid-1st, but in the overall scheme of things, it was important for me to land the first few firsts early and this offer was on the table ready for me to accept.

Trade 3
I gave: 4.12 and 12.12
I received: 7.10, 13.10 and First
Comment: A little pricey for my taste. Big drop from 4.12 to 7.10 in terms of level of talent.

DRAFT STARTED

Trade 4
I gave: 1.01(!) and 3.01
I received: 1.03 and 2.10
Comment: I wanted to position myself better to have a chance at David Wilson with this trade. I like Julio Jones #1 overall, but taking him at 1.01 over Calvin Johnson is somewhat of a wasted opportunity to trade down a little. Unfortunately, this is all I could land.

Trade 5
I gave: 7.10, 11.01 and 13.10
I received: First
Comment: Again, a tad pricey, but I tend to give away my 11th+ rounders for cheap (usually too cheap)

Trade 6
I gave: 1.03 and 16.12
I received: 3.01, 4.10 and First
Comment: Hated to lose Julio, but I thought this would be worth it

Trade 7
I gave: 2.10 and 13.01
I received: 6.07, 9.06 and two Firsts
Comment: Given my goals, and assuming I could still land a Cordarrelle Patterson at 6.07, this was a good trade

Trade 8
I gave: 3.01, 4.05 and 6.07
I received: 2.11, 4.11 and 6.11
Comment: Small trade to land Gronk on the clock at 2.11

Trade 9
I gave: 6.12 and 10.12
I received: First
Comment: ill-advised trade, but this got me to nine firsts. I reluctantly accepted

Trade 10
I gave: 4.10 and 9.06
I received: 3.08
Comment: Not great as far as picks go, but Cam was still available on the clock at 3.08, and I decided to take the plunge to land the QB2 on my board. In hindsight, I’d rather have the 4.10 and 9.06

Trade 11
I gave: 8.12 and 9.01
I received: 18.11, 19.02, 20.11 and First
Comment: Again, expensive considering I had to forego Michael Floyd whom I prefer in a vacuum over a random First. However, this got me to ten and I would have it if that random first were to become the 1.2 next year (with my team obviously clinching the #1).

Trade 12
I gave: 14.12 and 18.12
I received: Second
Comment: Collecting what looked to be my last First (the last two would not sell), I decided to start collecting Seconds.

Trade 13
I gave: 15.01 and 17.01
I received: Second

Trade 14
I gave: 17.07, 18.11 and 19.01
I received: Second

Trade 15
I gave: 19.02, 20.06, 20.11 and 20.12
I received: Second

Trade 16
I gave: Four Seconds (including my sure 2.1)
I received: First
Comment: This will probably end up being an overpay, but I have too many picks next year (with the short rosters). You never know, the first may end up being a top one, making this trade a win. I also really wanted #11.

POST-DRAFT

Trade 17
I gave: Fourth
I received: Da’Rick Rogers
Comment: Value play

Trade 18 I gave: Cam Newton, Bilal Powell and Andre Roberts
I received: Percy Harvin, Ryan Tannehill and Keenan Allen
Comment: Good trade for both teams, as I don’t need Harvin to produce this year.


MY DRAFT
2.11 Rob Gronkowski: Good value, but this came on the heals of the back surgery news. Nobody wanted him.
3.08 Cam Newton: Another good value, but I paid a premium to land him from the 4.10
4.11 Tavon Austin: I really like him.
5.01 Justin Blackmon: Terrible offseason thus far, but for a team that can wait, he could end up being a great value even this early. Plus, Torrey Smith got snagged at 4.12.
6.11 Cordarrelle Patterson: Love Patterson this late.

MY FREE AGENT PICKUPS

To get a sense of what is available on the waiver wire, I have thus far picked up the following players using part of my $1,000 FAAB budget. With rosters of 20 and starting lineup requirements deeper than any other 12-team league I am in, there are sure to be good values later in the year especially during bye weeks. It will be difficult for teams to continue to hold “potential” future studs in this format (particularly when everyone else is playing to win having already traded their future firsts to me). On the other hand, I should have ample room this year to carry fringe players with potential.

Bilal Powell: $2
Andre Roberts: $8
Dustin Keller: $18
Dion Lewis: $1
Kenjon Barner: $1
Ladarius Green: $1
Vance McDonald: $2
Julius Thomas: $4
Austin Collie: $3
Philip Rivers: $1
TJ Graham: $1
Rod Streater: $1

The FFPC – The Introduction of Mass Firsts in High Stakes Dynasty

In the 2010 maiden draft for the $1250 FFPC Dynasty League, the highest stakes dynasty league at the time, I came out of the startup draft with 6 future first round picks. At the time, such a feat was rare and seemed to many an outrageous strategy, particularly in a high stakes league with smaller rosters. Many (including, at times, myself) questioned whether I took it too far.

As one prominent FFPC player commented:

“How do people spend 1250 for next year and beyond? Next year your QBs will suck, Next year your TEs are weak at best, next year your WR are below average, Next year your RB depth will be thin. Next year, if you have 1.1, 1.2 and 1.3 you will have to hit on all three (which you won't) to have a chance. (Reggie Bush DMac etc) But the good news is after 3 years and $3750 you might make the playoffs in year four.”

Fortunately it didn’t take as long as that poster predicted for that team to make the playoffs. While not the success I had hoped for, the results were decent with a 2nd place finish in Year 2 and a 3rd place finish in Year 3. The success in Year 2 (which was a Tony Romo Week 16 zero (thumb to helmet) away from winning the title) was enough for other FFPC players to take notice (and to encourage some others to try the strategy themselves in the years to follow).

In that same year, I also acquired five 1sts in a $750 FFPC Dynasty League. By Year 3 (2012), I had won that league (and a cool $4,550) and am going into Year 4 as the favorite to win it all again (despite the loss of Aaron Hernandez this offseason). Results show that going five and six first rounders in 2010 was not going too far after all.

In 2011, I entered another $750 FFPC Dynasty League startup and decided to push the envelope out a little more, this time leaving the startup draft with nine(!!) future first rounders and a skeleton crew (albeit an extremely well drafted skeleton crew). In Year 2, I won the title and am going into Year 3 as the heavy favorite to win it all again with the best team on paper in the FFPC’s 26 leagues. Apparently, going nine first rounders was not going too far either.

The Dynasty Football World Championships – A Tale of Two Teams

In 2013, I decided to take the strategy a little further, this time in the Dynasty Football World Championships - a $299-entry, 12-league, 144-team competition (PPR). There, I drafted a ridiculous Year 1 team (ridiculous, meaning ridiculously bad) but left the startup draft with eleven (!!!) future first rounders. I really took things to the extreme here by leaving the draft with just five players. Those five players were Rob Gronkowski (1PPR), Cam Newton, Tavon Austin, Cordarrelle Patterson and Justin Blackmon - a nice but not elite bunch. I drafted so few players in part because of the relatively high prices that I had to pay for 1sts. In some cases, I paid early 6th round prices for a random future 1st, which is higher than I had been willing to pay in prior startups and which is probably more than anyone should be paying for a random first. Since then, I made one trade of Cam Newton, Bilal Powell (free agent pickup) and Andre Roberts (another pickup) for Percy Harvin (post surgery), Keenan Allen and Ryan Tannehill, not the best of trades, but one that made sense for this particular team.

Ok, so now I have eleven future first rounders which are sure to be quite valuable next year, but will it be enough to offset the skimpy start and permit the evolution to a dominant team? I wish the answer were a definitive “yes”, but I wasn’t entirely sure at first given that eleven firsts with a team as thin as this is unchartered territory in high stakes dynasty. Did I finally go too far? Did I acquire too many firsts and/or did I pay too much in doing so? Upon further analysis, evidence suggests that I probably did not.

I compare this team with another team I drafted in the DFWC. With that other team, I left the startup draft with “only” 6 firsts but a much better initial team as a result. That team consists of the following key players (after a few post-startup trades): AJ Green, Demaryius Thomas, Giovanni Bernard, Cordarrelle Patterson, Justin Blackmon and Michael Floyd. As compared to the team with eleven firsts, it is easier to draw the conclusion that this team, with its elite core of AJ Green and Demaryius Thomas, its complementary future studs in Bernard, Patterson, Blackmon and Floyd, and its six firsts WILL evolve into a dominant team. That is the conclusion I draw for this team. But how does this team really compare to the team with eleven firsts?
By cancelling out equal or comparable values (i.e., Demaryius for Gronk, Bernard for Tavon, Patterson for Patterson, Blackmon for Blackmon and 1sts for 1sts), what I am left with is roughly AJ Green and Michael Floyd on one team and Percy Harvin and 5 1sts on the other. I would personally take Harvin and 5 1sts over Green and Floyd, but in any event, the values are at the very least comparable. This suggests to me that the team with eleven first rounders is at least as good or possibly even better than the team with AJ/Demaryius and 6 firsts, a team I have already concluded will be dominant.

Bottomline, I believe results will show that going even eleven firsts and paying inflated prices to get there is still not going too far.

Hey guys, long break again as real life work has heated up. I’ve entered three teams into the Dynasty Football World Championships (each at $299), a 12-league, 144-team dynasty competition. The maiden drafts are ongoing now, and each team thus far is looking very promising in their own way. Very exciting! I’ll share the details later, but a question came up on the fftoolbox message boards regarding the value of rookie picks. The question was “So, one team has already amassed 6 1st round picks. How valuable are rookie draft picks? How do they compare to maiden drafts?”

My answer:

Really depends on the method you use to value rookies.

Judging by way of where rookies will get drafted in the DFWC maiden drafts this year, I’d guess the median value of all of the future 1st rounders (i.e., the 1.6 or 1.7) will be in the mid 7th range, maybe in the 8th in some leagues.

The best rookie picks (the ones from the worst teams) could be very valuable (depending on the class). The worst are probably 10th round value or worse (depending on class). Problem is, if you acquire picks like I am (sight unseen), you are really buying random 1sts.

So, paying more than a 7th round value for a future 1st is high, since you can simply draft the 1.6 or 1.7 rookie this year at a mid-7th round price. That said, my 1st deal this year was a straight up 7.1 for a 1st, which was already above median value. I knew I wanted to acquire mass picks, and I had to get the ball rolling quickly before the future 1st competition in the league (aka Ground and Pound) got their acquiring momentum going.

Given Scott’s lectures on the value of one’s first (6th round by the way for a random first is too high imo – grrrrrr), I knew I would have to pay more for 1sts this year than in some other leagues. The last one I acquired was at a price of 6.12+10.12 (a rough value of a late 5th). Considering that you can probably acquire a top 4 rookie in the late 5th this year, that price is very pricey. So Im probably going a bit overboard on price, but you never know when that one pick you didn’t acquire will be a top 3 pick next year. Plus, it was the 9th 1st for that team and I felt like I had enough resources to go ahead and splurge a bit. I think there is a little extra value in acquiring 8+ picks where each pick will be worth a little more on average than if you were just acquiring only 1 extra 1st.

Ive seen some serious overpaying for 1sts thus far (probably thanks to Scott). I think in one league, someone paid a 3.8 for 1 first rounder, and then a 4.3 for a second, and this was before the draft even began (i.e., before you have any indication as to how good or bad that team will be). That’s crazy since the first rookie this year won’t even be taken at 3.8 or 4.3. If those picks turn out to be merely average (and how can they be worse when you’ve given them an extra 3.8 or 4.3 to start), he would have traded a 3.8 this year for a 7.6 value next year and a 4.3 for a 7.10. Essentially a ticket to dynasty hell. That’s one team that league wont have to worry about for years, if ever.

Scott is right, you need to be careful selling your 1st too cheaply. But, unless you know what you’re doing, buying a 1st for more than 7th round value can be dangerous as well.

Here’s a link to the discussion. http://www.fftoolboxforums.com/index.php?showtopic=30513#entry123746